Dynamic analysis of domestic spot soybean meal market

Introduction: the long-awaited detailed rules for the implementation of genetically modified management regulations have been issued Although there is no obvious difference between the regulations in writing and those on June 6, 2001, it has caused a great stir in the futures market and finally led to linkage in the spot market On January 7, 2002, the contract price of Dalian futures has increased nearly 200 yuan / ton each month after the introduction of the detailed rules of the GM management regulations On January 9, the spot market began to follow up The price of domestic soybean in Shandong market was 1860-1880 yuan / ton, up about 60 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal was 1560-1600 yuan / ton, up nearly 100 yuan / ton Imported soybeans began to be reluctant to sell, with a slight increase in the price How to look at this change, from the perspective of spot analysis: first of all, the reasons for this rise are the promulgation of the detailed rules of genetically modified management regulations, which makes people's expectations on the arrival of domestic imported soybeans change in the later period, especially whether South American soybeans can smoothly enter the Chinese market after March M4u secondly, the price rise is in the early stage of domestic Spring Festival transportation The emergence of transportation tension and the arrival of centralized stocking season of feed manufacturers have brought more direct reasons for the price rise What should have happened originally has been expanded because of the "detailed rules" M4u third, according to the previous statistical law, January to March every year is the off-season for the arrival of imported soybeans In 2000, 10.42 million tons of soybeans were imported In the first quarter, only 1 million tons of soybeans were imported In 2001, 14.2 million tons of soybeans were expected to be imported In the first quarter, only 1.96 million tons were imported, with a relatively small proportion According to the latest signing situation, the number of domestic soybean imports will also decline from January to March this year, and the impact of imports on China will also weaken M4u in the above analysis, I mentioned that the detailed rules for the implementation of the regulations on genetically modified management is only the cause of the rising market The main meaning is that the detailed rules are as uncertain as the regulations, that is, policy flexibility I hope that you will pay attention to preventing possible risks when you see the bright future M4u (author:) to feed Weibo to: