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Overnight, the main Shanghai aluminum 2109 closed at 19940, up 370, and LME aluminum closed at 2596.
5, up 75.
5
.
The outbreak of the Delta epidemic weakens expectations of overseas interest rate hikes; The flood has a greater impact on logistics, but the short-term lack of arrival has made the inventory dematerialization obvious, but the repair is expected to accelerate, and the medium-term storage dumping and import supply pressure are greater, so it is recommended to wait and see
.
On the macro front, the Fed's FOMC statement on Wednesday said that the economy has made progress towards tapering QE; However, Powell stressed that before considering a rate hike, no decision has been made on debt reduction, and the dollar continues to weaken; U.
S.
GDP grew 6.
5% month-on-month in the second quarter, lower than expected
.
In terms of fundamentals, due to the hindrance of arrivals, aluminum rod aluminum ingot destocking accelerated, on the 29th, the inventory was reported at 758,000 tons, down 5.
1 from last Thursday; during the same period, the steel union statistics aluminum rod inventory was 114,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last Thursday; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in June was 454,000 tons, 15,300 tons month-on-month, the export performance was stable, and the import was 294,000 tons in the same period, an increase of 63,300 tons from the previous month; the southwest region once again expanded the power rationing by 5% to 30%, and the aluminum plant reduced production again; Shanxi Zhaofeng has recently started to resume production of 100,000 tons; Heavy rain in Henan caused all 40,000 tons of Dengdian to stop production, Jiaozuo Wanfang emergency shutdown, and some production capacity to stop production; Henan flood traffic gradually recovered, and the arrival of goods is expected to increase
.
Under the current weakening of consumption, inventories still continue to destock, and the inflection point of this year's accumulation is expected to continue to be postponed
.
Due to the disturbance on the supply side, short-term aluminum prices have a trend of upward rebound, and follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of the flood disaster in Henan and the corresponding resumption of production of aluminum plants and the specific time
of the inflection point of accumulation.
