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Trump announced on the 18th that a 10% tariff on 200 billion Chinese imports will be imposed from September 24, and it will automatically rise to 25%
by the end of the year.
Due to the weaker than expected tax rate collection, the gradual exhaustion of bearish news has brought about a rebound
in copper prices.
Since Wednesday, copper prices have begun to rise sharply, and the main contract of Shanghai copper quickly broke through the 49,000 resistance level
.
Spurred by the pre-holiday stocking of downstream markets, copper prices remained high and rose again on Friday, testing the 50,000 pressure level
.
Industry News:
1.
On September 21, China copper option contracts were officially listed and traded
on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
This is the first industrial option variety in China and the third option
variety in the domestic futures market.
In March and April last year, soybean meal options and sugar options were listed on
the Dalian Commodity Exchange and the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange respectively.
According to the explanation in the previous issue, the reason why copper was chosen as the first option variety is because its corresponding copper futures are the most mature futures varieties
in China.
2.
Chile's lower house has begun working on a proposal to impose a 3% mining royalty on copper and lithium miners operating in the country at nominal value, which applies to miners
with an annual output of more than 12,000 tons of copper and 50,000 tons of lithium.
The draft says miners should pay taxes annually, or from the date of mining if mines have not yet commenced operations
.
In terms of the market, the price of electrolytic copper rose rapidly to 50,000 with the copper future, and the attitude of merchants has also changed from cautious to optimistic, and in the case of increasing market supply, downstream manufacturers have also increased
their pre-holiday stocks.
On the last delivery day of the 17th, after the 17th, the copper price premium once reached above 300 yuan, and the back structure was obvious
.
As the Shanghai ratio has fallen, the high import profit and loss that lasted for two weeks has begun to decrease, and it has now reached around
200 yuan.
For the future market, it is expected that after the trend of copper prices, the premium will shrink further, and the import profit window may close
.
In terms of inventory, Shanghai copper stocks decreased by 23,537 tons to 111029 tons during the week, a decrease of 17.
49%, and the cumulative decline in the last 12 weeks was 57.
94% to the lowest level since November 2017
.
Copper stocks continued to deteriorate during the week, with a cumulative decrease of 9,300 metric tons to 216,600 metric tons, a cumulative decrease of 4.
12%.
The outlook for the future market, the strength of tariffs is less than expected, the profit is exhausted, the bulls are pulling up, this aspect will ease in the near future, and Lun copper takes the opportunity to pull up; Positive factors appeared, gold "9" silver "10", internal demand turned good, spot premium was difficult, global explicit inventory maintained a decreasing trend, supporting copper prices; The Brexit situation is gradually becoming clear, and the US dollar remains weak
.
The tariff was officially imposed on the 24th, in line with market expectations, and the impact is expected to be limited
.
