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On Thursday, the main 1703 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 46050 yuan / ton, after the opening due to the appreciation of the yuan, the bulls retraced sharply, the copper price stepped back on the daily moving average to get support, the short cover pulled the copper price back up, the afternoon bulls instantly increased their positions by nearly 5,000 lots, pulling the copper price up to 46160 yuan / ton, the upper shadow pierced the 40-day moving average, and immediately retraced after a false shot, dragging down the Shanghai copper tail pullback, closing at 45760 yuan / ton at the small white line
。 Intraday Shanghai copper around the 20-day moving average wide oscillation, bulls are still mainly short-term operations, due to the sudden appreciation of the RMB, the internal trend is obviously not as good as the external disk, it is expected that the short-term shock runs in the range of 45500 yuan / ton - 46200 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external disk, London copper opened high at 5640 US dollars / ton
.
At the beginning of the Asian session, with the dollar rising slightly, London copper tested 5608 US dollars / ton, as China announced that the Caixin composite PMI and service PMI in December were better than the previous value, Lun copper rebounded above the daily moving average, consolidating at the 20-day moving average, the RMB appreciated sharply in the afternoon, the dollar continued to fall, London copper broke through the 20, 40-day moving average resistance in one fell swoop, recording a high of 5698 US dollars / ton, bulls took the opportunity to profit and close their positions, copper prices gradually fell, smoothing out most of the day's gains, as of 17:30, London copper reported $5643/mt
.
The weakening of the dollar after the minutes of the Fed's December meeting gave London copper the opportunity to seek a breakthrough upward, but at present, it seems that the 20, 40-day moving average is sticking, the upper resistance is still strong, the bulls are mainly short-term operations, the dollar may continue to weaken in the short term, and copper prices continue to test the resistance level
.
On the macro front, the minutes of the Fed's December FOMC meeting showed that Fed officials were concerned that the Trump administration would bring "a lot of uncertainty"
to the economy.
Fed officials believe it is unclear how stimulus will affect the economic outlook and worry that uncertainty will make it more difficult to communicate the path to rate hikes with the public
.
This weighed on the dollar index and led to a general rise
in metal prices.
In terms of the market, Shanghai copper opened high and low, still sideways in the original range, the quotation of the holder continued to narrow the discount, good copper around the discount of 50 yuan / ton, the inquiry is more, the transaction is proactive, flat water copper due to the difference between the brand, the quotation range expands, the downstream maintains just need to enter the market, the middleman at the beginning of the new year, the performance is active, more than a week before delivery, speculators on the basis of the basis change to do some corresponding premium change trade
.
The price of the premium after the holiday has changed significantly, but the market still lacks quantitative support and cooperation
.
In the afternoon session, the market has a wave of rise, the market flat water copper shipments have decreased, the corresponding quotation slightly higher than in the morning, the holders still grasp the market initiative, downstream fear higher than the rapid rise of the plate, still dominated by middleman transactions
.
In terms of news, according to foreign news, mining giant BHP Billiton's Escondida mine in Chile is extremely difficult to negotiate, if the two sides cannot agree on a collective salary contract, union workers may go on strike in February, the mine produced a total of 188,000 tons
of copper in 2015.
From a technical point of view, copper prices rebounded, but considering the weak downstream demand before the Spring Festival and the lack of spot basis for futures price increases, it is recommended to focus on short-term operations
.