Downstream demand performance is weak Copper prices lack upward momentum

On Monday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper rebounded, with the highest 51570 yuan / ton, the lowest 50210 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 51050 yuan / ton, down 1.
49% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper opened low and rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6368 US dollars / ton, down 0.
13%
on the day.

Market focus: (1) On August 3, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new crowns in the world exceeded 18.
14 million, of which more than 4.
81 million were infected in the United States, and new cases in India and Brazil are also increasing
rapidly.
(2) According to data released by the government statistics agency INE last Friday, copper production in Chile fell for the first time in June since the outbreak of the epidemic
.
Chilean copper production fell 0.
6% year-on-year to 472172 tonnes
in June.
(3) On July 31, China's copper ore processing fee TC was $49/ton, up $0.
5/ton
from last week.

Spot analysis: On August 3, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 50820-51100 yuan / ton, the average price was 50960 yuan / ton, and the daily decline was 910 yuan / ton
.
Copper prices fell sharply, the market was cautious, August entered the consumption off-season, downstream orders fell significantly, consumer buying is difficult to lead, although good copper premium is high, but flat water copper premium may have limited upside
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 63,654 tons, an increase of 1,518 tons per day; On July 31, LME copper stocks were 128125 tons, down 1,100 tons per day, falling for 33 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended July 31, the previous period of Shanghai copper stocks reported 159513 tons, a weekly increase of 1829 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 82560 lots, a daily increase of 2301 lots, short positions were 83609 lots, a daily increase of 3247 lots, net short positions were 1049 lots, a daily increase of 946 lots, long and short positions increased, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2009 on August 3 downward rebound
.
Strong economic data from China, recovery in Europe and the United States, and monetary easing are conducive to boosting market confidence; At the same time, the current tight supply of copper mines has eased slightly, but the shortage of raw materials still inhibits smelting output, and the support for copper prices still exists
.
However, the global epidemic is still spreading, and the economic outlook is still facing great uncertainty; At the same time, it is still in the off-season, downstream demand performance is weak, and copper prices lack upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, August entered the off-season of consumption, and downstream orders fell significantly, making it difficult for consumer buying to lead
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract closed long and lower shadow, focusing on whether the 50600 position can stand firm, and it is expected to fluctuate
at a short-term low.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate lightly in the range of 50600-52000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 400 yuan / ton
each.