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LME aluminum fluctuated upward on Tuesday, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1805.
5 / ton, down 0.
11%
on a daily basis.
The main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose in shock, with the highest 14255 yuan / ton and the lowest 14165 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14235 yuan / ton, up 0.
35% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 125,600 lots, a daily decrease of 11,132 lots, and the position was 258,500 lots, an increase of 712 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to 245 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai aluminum in 2002-2003 narrowed to 65 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) US durable goods orders fell 2.
0% m/m in November, the lowest since May, expected to increase by 1.
5%, and increased by 0.
5%
in the previous month.
(2) Customs data, from January to November, China's cumulative exports of alumina 238112 tons, down 81.
5% year-on-year; The cumulative import of alumina was 1.
24 million tons, an increase of 167%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On December 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14460-14500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14480 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 40 yuan / ton
.
In the morning, traders are more active, with the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the shipment of holders has converged, although the middleman has the demand for receiving goods, but the two sides are more difficult to reach an agreement on the price, the actual transaction is
deadlocked.
Downstream on-demand procurement, a small number of goods received in the morning, as aluminum prices began to wait and see, buying enthusiasm declined
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 44,195 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 1,996 tons, a decline of 6 consecutive days; On December 23, LME aluminum stocks were 1485625 tons, down 925 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2002 contract are 78805 lots, minus 1765 lots, short positions are 95479 lots, daily increase of 899 lots, net short positions are 16674 lots, daily increase of 2664 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On December 24, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose in 2002
.
The dollar rally has slowed down, Sino-US trade progress is optimistic, while domestic electrolytic aluminum spot still continues to degrade, falling to the low level in nearly three years, and the recent slowdown in the rise of aluminum inventory, global explicit inventory may appear to fall, superimposed downstream demand has improved, aluminum prices are stronger, but the global economic downward pressure is greater, recent US economic data performance is not as expected, while China's alumina imports have increased significantly, domestic port depots continue to accumulate, oversupply pattern puts pressure on prices, pressure on aluminum prices
。 In terms of spot, the morning traders are more active, with the sharp rise in aluminum prices, the shipment of holders has converged, although the middleman has the demand for receiving goods, the downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, with the aluminum price after the surge began to wait and see
.
Technically, the trading volume of the main 2002 contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, focusing on the support of the 14160 position below, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
