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LME aluminum rose on Wednesday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1622 / ton, up 0.
25%
per day.
The main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise sharply, with the highest 14050 yuan / ton and the lowest 13825 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14030 yuan / ton, up 1.
45% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 101045 lots, with a daily increase of 9984 lots; The position was 168,300 lots, an increase of 3,179 lots
per day.
basis 330 yuan/ton; The price difference of Shanghai aluminum in 2008-2009 was 180 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) During the three-day Dragon Boat Festival, a total of 48.
809 million domestic tourists were received nationwide, a year-on-year recovery of 50.
9%; Tourism revenue reached 12.
28 billion yuan, a year-on-year recovery of 31.
2%.
Spot analysis: On July 1, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14340-14380 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14360 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 190 yuan / ton
.
A large household has a purchase plan of more than 10,000 tons in East China within the day, the quotation is reasonable, the shipment of the holder is acceptable, the willingness of the middleman to receive the goods is relatively poor, and the transaction between the buyer and the seller is flat
.
Downstream intraday on-demand procurement is the mainstay, because the price of aluminum has risen greatly, and the enthusiasm for buying goods is not high
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 89,725 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 102 tons, a continuous decline of 10 days; On June 30, LME aluminum stocks were 1,642,600 tons, a daily decrease of 5,400 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract were 100550 lots, a daily increase of 1434 lots, short positions 120423 lots, a daily increase of 1207 lots, a net short position of 19873 lots, a daily decrease of 227 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.
Market research and judgment: On July 1, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2008 continued to rise
sharply.
Heightened tensions between China and the United States over the Hong Kong issue, coupled with the ongoing spread of the global coronavirus pandemic, lingering market worries; At the same time, the aluminum import window continues to open, and the supply of imported sources increases; In addition, the profit recovery of electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual recovery of domestic electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure
on aluminum prices.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform strongly, driving Shanghai aluminum inventories to continue to degrade, short-term supply tightness continues, aluminum prices still have upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, a large household in East China plans to purchase more than 10,000 tons, the shippers are still able to ship, the middlemen are relatively less willing to receive goods, and the downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2008 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the mainstream position increased and reduced the short, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 14,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13,900 yuan / ton
.
