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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded again, and spot premium remained at a high level
of 180 yuan.
Recently, import profits have rebounded, and the inflow of customs aluminum ingots has increased, but the trend of destocking has not changed
.
On Monday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots fell by another 15,000 tons to 610,000 tons, indicating that downstream consumption is still strong, inventories will hit a new low in the year, it is expected that the Shanghai aluminum back structure is difficult to reverse, but the absolute price has risen rapidly after it has been high, tons of aluminum profit more than 2,500 yuan, it is recommended to gradually lock in profits
.
At the macro level, the new crown vaccine has made significant progress, the global economic outlook may undergo a major improvement, and the macro market sentiment tends to be optimistic
due to the performance of some macro data.
In terms of supply, the price of alumina at the cost end continues to be low, the price of aluminum continues to rise, the profit margin of aluminum enterprises continues to increase, production capacity continues to be released, and the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is not reduced
.
In terms of demand, entering November, the consumption side has not weakened rapidly, the current aluminum ingot social inventory is in a state of continuous decline, and the inventory base hit a new low in the year, coupled with the current increase in orders for automobiles and home appliances and other industries, consumption basically tends to be stable, the current performance is not light
in the off-season.
On the whole, under the background of the current low inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory, there is a risk of soft squeeze in the near-month contract, and in the short term, aluminum prices will still run strongly, but over time, the rhythm of supply and demand will weaken the momentum of aluminum prices.
