Domestic wheat prices are expected to continue to strengthen

Introduction: in the early stage, as farmers and grain storage enterprises in the production area increased their efforts to sell surplus grain, the market supply increased, leading to a stable price rise In the near future, affected by the SARS epidemic, the demand for domestic wheat has increased significantly, and the market price has stimulated the upward trend According to the current development environment of the domestic wheat market, the domestic wheat price is expected to continue to strengthen in the later period The specific analysis is as follows: ppt 1 The end of deflation, the price of agricultural products into the bull market cycle According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics on April 17, China's GDP growth in the first quarter of this year reached 9.9% In particular, for the first time in 20 months, the price index has seen positive growth of 0.5% Based on the data of China's economic operation in the first quarter, it can be concluded that the deflation that has been plaguing China's economic operation for a long time has shown signs of ending While the negative growth situation of consumer price of PPT has been initially reversed, the price of means of production, as the price leading index, has continued to rise, with a large increase in oil products, steel products, cotton, etc In the next few months, with the shortage of energy supply and the expansion of construction scale, the prices of energy and investment products will continue to rise Domestic economists are still discussing whether the rise of food prices further promoted inflation or accelerated the sharp rise of food prices between 1994 and 1996 But it is certain that the two are complementary The rise of animal prices in the economic recovery zone will also stimulate agricultural prices as the basis of prices to get rid of the six-year downturn and enter a new round of bull market cycle Under the background of PPT, the leading wheat of agricultural products in China is expected to follow the example of soybean and open the curtain of bull market Ppt 2 The decrease of stock and the shortage of wheat supply and demand are coming If the external cause of wheat bull market is the improvement of macro economy, the continuous decrease of wheat stock will be the internal cause of wheat market From the recent trend of CBOT soybeans, we can easily find that there is only one fundamental reason for the continuous rise of CBOT soybeans in the off-season, that is, the carry over inventory has dropped to the lowest point in history Similarly, China's wheat market has experienced four years of insufficient production and demand, and its inventory level has dropped to a historical low And with the full implementation of the policy of returning farmland to forest, after 2004, China's wheat will enter the era of shortage from oversupply The shortage of supply can only be made up by imports, and the increase of imports will stimulate the global wheat price Due to the long-term downturn of the wheat spot market and the low level of wheat inventory of grain consuming units and sales areas, once the wheat market starts, the market reaches a consensus on the expectation of wheat price rise, which will lead to the rush purchase of processors and sales areas In addition, driven by the behavior of small wheat dealers' buying up but not buying down, the wheat price will rise rapidly It can be said that this year's domestic cotton market is a typical example Ppt 3 High quality wheat took the lead in launching the wheat bull market With the continuous increase of domestic bulk commodity prices, after the Spring Festival, the wheat market, which was in the off-season of consumption, has a strong demand situation The sale rate of Chenliang in different places reached 100%, and the sale price remained high And the price of high-quality wheat is driven by demand and the impact of the future market The ex warehouse price of gao8901 in Hebei Province has increased from 1200 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival to more than 1300 yuan / ton at present, and the annual output of "8901" in 2001 has reached 1400 yuan / ton, while the high-quality varieties such as "Gaoyou 503" in Henan Province have also increased from 1180 yuan / ton before the festival to 1300 yuan / ton at present It is reported that although China's total wheat output has been reduced for three consecutive years, the planting area of high-quality wheat continues to increase, and its output will increase accordingly However, according to the data of the national grain and oil information center, the quality of high-quality wheat in China has declined due to the rapid promotion The main reason is that the high-quality wheat is planted adjacent to the common wheat and the farmers do not have enough knowledge of technology Although the production of high-quality wheat in the general sense has broken through the market demand, the real production of high-quality and strong gluten wheat cannot be completed from the perspective of the balance of production and demand To meet the needs of food processing, this gap needs to be solved by importing and releasing stocks and other methods, which has a positive role in promoting market prices All kinds of signs show that this kind of seasonal rise of wheat market is the early phenomenon of wheat bull market The first start of high-quality wheat will lead to the overall strength of wheat prices Ppt 4 The weather condition is relatively unfavorable, which provides conditions for market price This year, the growth environment of Winter Wheat in China is not very ideal, which may lead to the increase of production reduction Since April, two streams of cold air have intruded into northern China, which has a great impact on domestic wheat production At the same time, the strong convective weather accompanied by cooling has a serious impact on the growth of Huang Huai Region According to relevant data, due to the obvious slow recovery of temperature this year in Huanghuai area of North China, the wheat growth process in this area may be the slowest in the past decade At present, wheat in Shandong Province is still in jointing stage, and it will take about a week to heading In 2002, the concentrated heading stage of wheat in Shandong province appeared in the middle and late April It is estimated that this year's growth period will be delayed by about 10-15 days compared with the previous year At present, winter wheat is still in the middle stage of jointing in the central and southern areas of Hechan Province, and its growth process has been delayed about 10-15 days compared with the same period in the past five years According to the Agricultural Department of Anhui Province, the current growth of wheat along the Huaihe River and the Yangtze River in Anhui Province is obviously poor The growth period of wheat is 15-20 days later than that of the same period of the whole year At present, a large area of heading has just begun, and the occurrence area of diseases and insect pests is expanding The current growth trend and growth stage of wheat in Northern Jiangsu are basically the same as those in Anhui Province Although the market focus of PPT at this stage is on the weather change in May and the grain policy of the production area, this is not the main factor affecting the wheat price The decisive influence on wheat price is the trend of domestic economy and the change of wheat supply and demand The weather and policy factors will only affect the wheat price trend in stages It can be said that even if the weather is favorable in the later period of wheat growth, the wheat market will still rise; once there is a disastrous weather, the wheat price, especially the wheat futures price, will rise sharply As for the impact of grain policy on wheat price, the author thinks that it has been greatly weakened at present As the relationship between supply and demand of wheat has changed qualitatively, the wheat market is gradually moving towards marketization After 6 years of bear market, domestic wheat market has entered into bear cattle conversion period With the economic recovery and the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, wheat prices will continue to strengthen, and there is a large space for future market growth   PPt
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