Domestic soybean meal market risk gradually increased

Introduction: the director of the information center of Jilin food bureau thinks that the rapid rise of domestic soybean meal price is not based on the change of long-term supply-demand relationship, and the price rise of soybean meal in the later period faces greater pressure, The market risk of price falling may be released at any time Since April, the domestic soybean meal spot market has changed the previous downturn trend, and the market price has risen rapidly Especially in the past week, the soybean meal price has increased more rapidly In some areas, it has increased by more than 100 yuan / ton, and the high increase is close to 200 yuan / ton, The factory price of soybean meal in Dalian has risen to about 2150 yuan / ton, that of Changchun soybean meal in Jilin is about 2100 yuan / ton, and that of Heilongjiang oil factory is 2080-2100 yuan / ton Some oil factories are out of stock, and that of most factories in Shandong and Jiangsu Province is more than 2200 yuan / ton, Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still carrying out Limited sales The price in Guangdong has risen to 2350 yuan / ton The stock on the market has been exhausted There is basically no spot on the wharf, and it is expected that the price will rise further While the spot price is rising rapidly, the soybean meal futures price is even more bullish On April 17, the mx308 contract closed at 2155 yuan / ton, At one time, it touched a high of 2169 yuan / ton, only 27 yuan away from its historical highest price of 2182 yuan The main reasons for the rapid rise of soybean meal price in the near future are as follows: first, the direct trigger for the sharp rise of soybean meal spot price is the rise of CBOT price The continuous rise of CBOT soybean price, The average cost of imported soybeans of domestic soybean processing enterprises is also rising In the first ten days of April, the centralized duty paying cost of soybeans from China to the United States in Hong Kong has reached 2580-2610 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than 2450-2500 yuan / ton from February to March this year Second, the supply of soybean raw materials is tight Currently, the supply of domestic soybeans for oil has been basically cut off, The price is more than 2600 yuan / ton, and the source of imported soybeans is mostly monopolized by large-scale oil plants According to the arrival schedule of imported soybeans, the recent arrival soybeans are mainly American soybeans, and the CIF price is also 2600 yuan / ton The processing cost is still high, and the major oil plants are selling at a favorable price, It is necessary to continue to raise the selling price of soybean meal by virtue of its monopoly advantage AAQ third, the increasingly tense situation of soybean meal supply has exacerbated the price rise In addition to the tight supply of soybean resources, on the one hand, the current soybean crushing is still on the edge of loss, on the other hand, as the domestic soybean market is about to face price reduction, in order to avoid the risk of price reduction, the oil plants are, It is reported that the shutdown rate of oil plants in the main production area is increasing day by day Yantai, Shandong Province and Lianyungang Yihai are about to stop production Xiangchi has stopped a large production line and Longkou large oil plants have also stopped production The large oil plants in Nantong, East China have begun to stop production, which means that the start-up production is not full load production Obviously, the soybean meal supply will be more tense in the later stage, It is said that the soybean meal order of some oil plants has been followed up to the end of April, and the price has also increased with the day AAQ 4 is that the short-term demand of the breeding factories has increased, which provides favorable support for the price rise of soybean meal In the early stage, people generally hold uncertain about the oil and fat market in April, the breeding factories are more cautious, and the purchase of meal products is very limited, Only enough for more than 10 days At present, it is faced with a new round of procurement, and the demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for the rise of soybean meal price AAQ must be aware that whether the domestic demand can really start is questionable The short-term decrease of supply only changes the local supply and demand situation From the perspective of the supply-demand relationship of soybean meal, This year, the domestic soybean meal supply is 17.25 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03 million tons, the domestic demand consumption of 15.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 700000 tons, the export volume of 1.2 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 150000 tons The demand consumption is 16.4 million tons, and the supply and demand comparison shows that the supply volume is greater than the demand consumption of 850000 tons, Therefore, it has a negative effect on the price trend of domestic soybean meal market In the long term, the price trend of soybean meal is still relatively weak In the short term, due to the sharp rise in the price of soybean meal, it will bring huge profits to the crushing enterprises, which will lead to the resumption of production of the crushing enterprises, and the supply of soybean meal may be improved In addition, with the continuous arrival of South American imported soybeans in Hong Kong in the later period, The shortage of raw material supply will also be eased, and the possible peak of raw material supply will not underestimate the pressure on the price of soybean meal Therefore, in the later stage, the price of soybean meal will rise again and face greater pressure, and the market risk of price fall may be released at any time