Domestic demand performance is acceptable, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum is rebounding

Market focus: (1) US service sector activity rebounded
sharply in June.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that the index of non-manufacturing activity jumped to 57.
1 in June, the highest since February and 45.
4
in May.
(2) Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the U.
S.
economic recovery will be "more bumpy"
as coronavirus cases continue to rise.
(3) China's domestic bauxite consumption in June 2020 was about 6.
38 million tons, an increase of 5.
99% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.
55%.

In the first half of this year, China's domestic bauxite consumption totaled about 36.
1 million tons, down 23.
42%
from the same period last year.

Spot analysis: On July 8, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14300-14340 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14320 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton
per day.
The morning market showed a tight supply of goods, with many receivers, but fewer shipments, and firm quotations, due to the small number of market circulation spots, and the actual transaction was average
.
In the later period, aluminum rose sharply, although the enthusiasm of middlemen to receive goods did not decrease, but the holders began to show hesitation, shipments converged, and the second transaction stage was very rare
.
Downstream intraday on-demand receiving is the mainstay, and the signs of stocking are not obvious
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 87,930 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 427 tons; On July 7, LME aluminum stocks were 1618025 tons, down 6,750 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2008 contract 102276 lots, a daily increase of 3268 lots, a short position of 115176 lots, a daily decrease of 1242 lots, a net short position of 12900 lots, a daily decrease of 4510 lots, more increase and short, a decrease
in net space.

Market research and judgment: On July 8, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2008 rebounded
.
Under the impact of the overseas epidemic, the recovery of demand is still weak, the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the further expansion of the import profit window, and the subsequent overseas source imports are expected to increase, and aluminum exports will also be suppressed, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, recent strong data from major economies has boosted market optimism; And the performance of domestic demand is still down, and Shanghai aluminum inventories continue to dematerialize, and the support for aluminum prices still exists
.
In terms of spot, the morning market showed a tight supply of goods, with many receivers, but fewer shipments, and the downstream intraday on-demand goods were mainly
received.
Technically, the mainstream position of Shanghai's main 2008 contract increased and reduced short, focusing on the 10-day moving average support, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
In operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2008 contract can be long around 14100 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14000 yuan / ton
.