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Last week, the price of Shanghai rubber futures closed in volatility, with a weekly -0.
24%.
Spot prices fluctuate in a narrow range, supply increments and weak demand fundamentals continue to suppress rubber prices, the recent international market demand is significantly weakened, domestic demand expectations are still not optimistic, Thailand raw material glue and cup rubber prices fell to the rubber price to suppress the rubber price, superimposed macro panic has reheated up, dragging down the low price of natural rubber
.
Last week, domestic spot prices continued the downward trend of the previous period, and the downward trend of mixed rubber prices was more obvious, or mainly due to the poor domestic actual demand and the decline in overseas demand, and the weakening of market sentiment also suppressed the spot market
.
Full latex has been relatively strong recently, and the decline is relatively small
.
The negative basis of the RU main contract continued to narrow, while the spread between full milk and mixed rubber continued to widen
.
The recent price difference between whole milk and mixed rubber and the price difference between whole milk and 3L reflect the higher price of whole milk, and the replacement perspective will not be conducive to the later destocking of whole latex
.
The seasonal off-season in August coupled with the domestic economic downturn, the low operating rate of domestic downstream tire factories and the high inventory of finished products did not improve, and domestic demand continued to be weak
.
The weakening of spot prices dominated by tire rubber may also indicate that the negative feedback of overseas demand has begun to appear
.
The slow improvement in domestic demand and downward concerns about overseas demand have led to a sustained decline in spot prices in the near future, putting pressure
on the market in the short term.
However, due to the continuous rise in domestic raw material prices, the plate price was supported, so that the rubber price continued to fluctuate at a low level
.
In terms of inventory, as of August 26, 2022, the natural rubber 286882 (2829) tons and warehouse receipts were 261460 (2800) tons
.
No.
20 rubber stock 69058 (-7721) tons, warehouse receipt 60792 (-7973) tons
.
The inventory of the previous + Qingdao was 75.
6 (0.
26) million tons
.
In the later stage, the supply continued to rise, and the price of raw materials at home and abroad was high, and there was still room
for decline.
On the demand side, it is necessary to see the substantial dematerialization of finished product inventories of domestic downstream tire factories in order to have momentum for raw material procurement
.
Therefore, under the current contradiction between supply and demand, the medium-term easing pattern will not be changed, unless we see obvious improvement in demand in the later stage
.
Short-term advice is to wait and see
for now.
