Domestic corn market price is ready to develop

Introduction: the price of domestic corn market is ready to go The price of domestic corn market is ready to go Kzz (I) the situation of domestic corn production area's purchasing market: the surplus grain in kzz's purchasing market is scarce, and the peak pattern of grain sales is difficult to form According to the monitoring data of Jilin grain wholesale market, as of April 10, 2002 In Jilin Province, the number of new corn put into storage by state-owned grain enterprises was 10.108 million tons, accounting for 67.39% of the annual average output of Jilin Province, down from the same period last year As of the first ten days of March, 3.945 million tons of new corn had been put into Heilongjiang Province, 185000 tons less than the same period last year KzZ Due to the limited amount of surplus grain in the hands of farmers, the pattern of active purchase market has not been formed, and the market expectation of obvious increase in supply is not broken Although this provides a good opportunity for the market to rise, the favorable factors in various aspects in the early stage have been reflected in the rising purchase price At present, the promotion effect on the price is obviously weakened, so the purchase price Ge kept stable under the condition that the number of acquisitions decreased and the market favorable factors weakened The specific situation is as follows: the purchase price of grain enterprises in kzz Jilin Changchun region is about 800-820 yuan / ton (moisture content is 18-20%), which is the same as that in the earlier stage, and the purchase price of corn enterprises in Gongzhuling region is about 800-820 yuan / ton (moisture content is 18-20%), which is the same as that in the earlier stage The purchase price of natural water content (moisture content is 18-20%) of corn in Changchun corn deep processing enterprise in Jilin is 880-900 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage The purchase price of natural water content (moisture content is 18-20%) of corn in Gongzhuling corn deep processing enterprise is 880-900 yuan / ton, which is the same as that in the earlier stage The purchase price of natural moisture corn (moisture content is 25-26%) of grain consuming enterprises in Zhaodong area of Longjiang is about 760-780 yuan / ton, up slightly from the previous period The trend of purchase price in the later stage of kzz is predicted: with the further reduction of grain sources in the purchase market and the continuous development of spring ploughing production, it is difficult for the purchase price to move up substantially Kzz (II) market situation of domestic corn production and marketing area: (Note: the following quoted varieties are second-class yellow corn with water content of 14%) At present, the domestic corn market situation is in good condition, and the market price of corn in most areas remains stable The specific situation is as follows: the ex warehouse price of kzz production area: 960 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang Harbin area, up 40% from the same period last month; Changchun area, Jilin Province 980 yuan / ton, 30% higher than the same period last month; 1020 yuan / ton in Shenyang, Liaoning, 70% higher than the same period last year; 1040 yuan / ton in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, the same period last month; 1060 yuan / ton in Dezhou, Shandong, the same period last month; 1010 yuan / ton in Shijiazhuang, Hebei, the same period last month; 1070 yuan / ton in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, the same period last month 10%, 1060 yuan / ton in Lianyungang, the same period as last month; 1000 yuan / ton in Zhengzhou, Henan, the same period as last month; 1000 yuan / ton in Xi'an, the same period as last month Terminal price of kzz sales area: 1100 yuan / ton in Chengdu, Sichuan, the same period as last month; 1100 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, Jiangsu, the same period as last month Flat price of kzz port: 1070 yuan / ton for Dalian port, 20% higher than the same period last month; 1060 yuan / ton for Qinhuangdao port, 6% higher than the same period last month The arrival price of kzz sales area: 1140 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, the same as that in the same period last month; 1150 yuan / ton in Fujian, the same as that in the earlier period; 1090 yuan / ton in Shanghai, the same as that in the earlier period Kzz look at the market from the corn price in the domestic production and marketing area: at present, the corn market in China is generally stable, while the corn market in the northeast is active, while the market in the sales area is quiet, and the port price is also different The main reason for the market difference in the production and marketing area is the different psychological trends of the enterprises in the production and marketing area The specific situation is as follows: kzz I the market in the production and marketing area Most of the grain enterprises in kzz, which are responsible for export and have export conditions, are still active in export sales On the contrary, they are not active in domestic trade sales The market sales prices are firm The specific reasons are as follows: kzz 1 Different benefits brought by domestic and foreign trade to enterprises Kzz 2 The profit margin of domestic trade sales is small Kzz 3 The work of warehouse clearing and inventory checking was generally carried out At present, the national clearance and inventory inspection work has been carried out, and large-scale purchase has been started for the grain storage enterprises in the early stage with insufficient inventory Kzz 4, domestic trade sales prospects are good At present, the corn inventory in the Central Plains is almost exhausted In addition to barely meeting the production demand of the surrounding grain enterprises, large-scale outward transportation activities have stopped Some enterprises have invested their purchase intention in the Northeast in the later stage In the case that corn import is difficult to operate, the market supply in the later stage will depend on the northeast The enterprises are optimistic about the sales prospect in the later stage Kzz 2 From the perspective of the market in the sales area, most of the enterprises in kzz have a strong wait-and-see mentality They are not willing to purchase the inventory in the production area in large quantities, and the market price is not stronger The specific reasons are: kzz 1 The quality of corn is low Kzz 2 The purchasing prospect is optimistic Due to the partial liberalization of the corn purchase and sale market in the Northeast production area, the collection and storage enterprises are not only limited to the state-owned collection and storage enterprises, but also private enterprises The procurement channels of enterprises have been widened, and enterprises are not eager to purchase under the condition of ensuring normal production Kzz 3 The repercussions of warehouse clearing and inventory checking were not so good Kzz 4 The market questions the performance of price rise Under the influence of various favorable factors, the market price in the production area has been rising unilaterally since the Spring Festival, and the price in the sales area has not been affected by the upward trend The market transaction in the production area is flat, so the enterprises in the sales area can not help but question the sharp rise of the price in the production area, have some expectations on the price drop in the later period, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong Kzz 3 Look at kzz from the Central Plains market Due to the large consumption of the existing stock in the Central Plains corn market, the export activities have basically stopped Due to the uneven distribution of the corn stock in China, the Central Plains corn is sold by the way of keeping no stock It is expected that the corn supply quantity in the area will be exhausted around May 1st, and the Central Plains corn production area will also change its position and join the market of the sales area, and the market price will also be changed It will fluctuate with the prices of northeast production area and southern sales area It can be said that the Central Plains market is transforming from a production area to a sales area, in which the market price is hovering Kzz IV from the perspective of port conditions Considering the regional differences, the influencing factors of port prices in the north and the South have different emphases Ports in the north, such as Dalian port and Qinhuangdao port, are more likely to show the sales price of corn in the Northeast; ports in the south, such as Guangdong and Fuzhou, are strongly affected by the quantity, quality and demand of the north; therefore, under the condition that the price of corn in the northeast is rising steadily, the price of ports in the north also shows the same performance However, the demand of enterprises in the sales area of southern port is not strong, and the quality of corn has not changed significantly Kzz post market expectation: at present, although the domestic corn market is in a new situation, the inherent market performance has changed in the past, and the production and marketing areas have their own comments on the rise and fall of the post market price However, the current market price rise and fall expectation can not only be determined by right or wrong, it can be said that the rise has the rise and the fall has the basis KzZ According to the current situation of corn market in China, a large number of overstocked stocks, unreasonable inventory structure, and difficult operation of corn import are the reality in front of the market in the production and marketing area The seasonal market operation rules still exist, the sales position of the northeast corn production area is still unshakable, and the market will continue to be in the process of sales and purchase Therefore, the domestic jade in the future market The rice market is still promising, and the domestic corn market will accumulate energy to prepare for the rising of market price It is expected that the increase of corn price in the production area will slow down, and the market price in the sales area will rise higher When the price difference between the north and the South Market becomes more reasonable, the real meaning of domestic corn price will come in spring KzZ