Domestic corn market price expected to rise in April

Introduction: at present, the domestic corn market has maintained a good momentum of growth From the production area to the sales area, the market price has shown an upward trend Until the end of March, the corn price will still maintain a stable operation However, in April, the domestic corn market price is expected to rise, and the price trend will show a leap development The specific analysis is as follows: p65 1 Spring ploughing is approaching, and the sowing area is expected to decline p65 According to the report of the national grain and Oil Information Center (cnoic), due to the reduction of the sowing area and unit yield, it is expected that the corn production in 2003 / 04 (October to September of the next year) in China will be lower than that in the previous year Corn production is expected to reach 119 million tons in 2003 / 04, which is 4 million tons or 3.32% lower than 123.6 million tons in 2002 / 03 In 2003 / 04, China's corn planting area is expected to reach 24 million hectares, which is 2.04% lower than that in 2002 / 03 But it is predicted that the increase and decrease trend of corn planting area in Northeast and North China is different from 2003 to 2004 The report said corn acreage in the northeast is expected to decline as soybean prices became more attractive in 2002 / 03, prompting domestic farmers to switch to planting more soybeans In addition, as part of the soybean revitalization plan launched by the Ministry of agriculture in early 2002, the local government in the northeast also encouraged farmers to grow more soybeans Large corn stocks also prompted the Chinese government to reduce corn production and actively promote corn exports In North China, farmers are expected to increase the planting area of corn because corn prices have been strong since the end of 2002 The relatively tight local corn supply will also prompt farmers to increase corn planting area in spring and summer The weather conditions in North China this year may not be as good as that in 2002, which will lead to the decline of corn yield per unit area P65 2 The export market of corn is still active, and the driving force remains unchanged According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, 1765212 tons of corn were exported from China between February 1 and 28, an increase of 129% over the same period last year From January to February 2003, China exported 2335502 tons of corn, an increase of 134% year on year In terms of export quantity, China's corn export is still active, the export quantity is still in the stage of amplification, and the export market is expected to be optimistic in the later stage At the just concluded session of the National People's Congress, Liu Xianlu, President of Jilin grain group (JGG), told the media that China's corn export should be stable at last year's level this year He expected China to continue to provide financial policy support for corn export this year, and there would be no major changes COFCO is also one of the two companies authorized by the Chinese government to export corn, accounting for 70% of China's corn exports last year In 2002, the amount of government financial support was about 300 yuan per ton, or 36.2 US dollars These financial support include lower rail transport costs, lower port loading costs, and full refund of VAT In 2002, the price of corn sold by Jiliang was mostly US $105 per ton, some US $113, some US $115, FOB At present, the price of corn offered by Jilin grain is US $105 to US $110 per ton, FOB price Liu said that Jilin grain has exported some corn this year, and also sold some corn for June shipment at US $116 per ton FOB price From this point of view, although the export price of corn in China has increased this year, with the support of national policies and favorable international market situation, the prospect of corn export is still broad and the market promotion effect remains unchanged P65 3 The supply of export goods is expected to be tight, and the market price is subject to upward movement The export of corn from Northeast China to the port area is one of the most important sales channels in Northeast China Once the supply of export goods is insufficient, it means that the supply capacity of corn in the production area has been obviously strained Up to the middle of March, there are more than 2 million tons of corn export contracts in 2002 waiting for shipment In addition, a large number of corn export contracts in 2003 have also entered the implementation period The export demand will not decrease in a short period of time, and the corn supply capacity in Northeast China is unlikely to increase In the future, the domestic corn market price will be bullish Since March, the increase of corn prices in Northeast ports and production areas indicates that the supply of corn for export is obviously insufficient Due to the short-term supply shortage of export goods, Jilin grain group continuously raised the purchase price of corn car plate in Dalian, which led to the rapid increase of corn prices in Liaoning, Jilin and Inner Mongolia Moreover, dealers generally began to be reluctant to sell corn in stock At the same time, the situation and proportion of new dry corn used for export were from 2 The supply of domestic trade corn has been significantly affected, and the closing price of domestic trade corn has increased significantly In the short term, the relative shortage of this supply is difficult to improve, which has a positive effect on the continuous increase of market price P65 4 The introduction of corn futures is approaching, and the market driving force is strengthening P65 corn has the characteristics of large output, high commodity rate, easy storage, uniform quality and large price fluctuation, which is a suitable variety for futures The world's first corn futures contract was born in the United States The United States makes full use of the corn futures market to promote the development of domestic corn order agriculture, making it a global corn pricing center The U.S government also uses the information of corn futures market to formulate macro policies, encourage farmers to avoid risks, enhance investors' confidence in participating in corn futures trading, and provide the driving force for the continuous expansion of market scale, which is very worthy of our reference China's futures market 10 The successful experience in recent years has provided conditions for the listing and trading of corn futures The national policy also supports the launch of new futures related to the national economy and people's livelihood The recovery of corn futures will be conducive to the active futures market, increase the capacity of futures market, play a positive role in regulating the development of China's futures market, and not only promote the reform and improvement of the national grain circulation system and pricing mechanism, It is beneficial to the development of market economy in China Affected by this, the preparatory work for the launch of corn futures in China is in progress, and it is believed that it will be launched soon, which will add strong momentum to the domestic corn spot market in the later stage P65 5 The economic development of corn, the market added p65 as the old industrial base of Jilin Province, the deep processing of corn as a new economic growth point has been included in the development of the province's rural economy strategy, and the construction of the 600000 ton / a fuel ethanol project is also in progress At the first session of the 10th National People's Congress of Jilin Province and the first session of the 9th CPPCC, the representatives of the provincial people's Congress and members of the CPPCC paid great attention to the development of corn as an industrial raw material Taking a new road of industrialization is the direction of the development of the old industrial base At present, Jilin fuel ethanol Co., Ltd is speeding up the construction of a 600000 ton / a fuel ethanol project This project is a key construction project of the state and Jilin Province during the Tenth Five Year Plan period, and also a national pilot and demonstration project With a total investment of 2.89 billion yuan, the project will play a positive role in the implementation of "corn economy" and the reduction of environmental pollution and the protection of ecological environment in Jilin Province P65 6 The industrial advantages are reflected At present, the way to revitalize China's corn industry is still in the development stage, and there are still unreasonable phenomena in the market However, considering the existing corn industry, China's corn industry has obvious advantages Japan, South Korea and other regions around China are famous corn import regions in the world, with an annual consumption of more than 35 million tons Their domestic production cannot meet the demand, and there is a considerable gap in corn supply and demand In recent years, due to the boycott of genetically modified products in the international market, non genetically modified corn is generally favored Chinese corn is all non genetically modified corn, while most corn in the United States is genetically modified In recent years, with the growing concern of the international community for genetically modified agricultural products, consumers in some European and Asian countries boycott the genetically modified products, the United States will lose some foreign markets of corn, which brings opportunities for China's corn export At the same time, the natural conditions of corn planting in China are superior, and the resource cost of corn production is relatively low Corn scientific research base is good, and a number of special varieties with good comprehensive properties have been cultivated With the continuous growth of domestic corn consumption, it is possible to give full play to the potential advantages of corn industry The first is the stable growth of feed corn demand; the second is the vigorous development of corn deep processing industry with great market potential; the third is the consumption of corn for food, seed and other purposes will maintain the current consumption level It can be seen that the advantages of China's corn industry are relatively obvious, which is of positive significance for promoting the economic development of corn, improving the competitiveness of the international market and promoting the upward development of the market Over p65, under the influence of long-term and short-term favorable factors in the market, the market price trend of domestic corn in the later period is expected to show a more active development pattern Therefore, it is expected that in April, the market price of corn production areas in China is expected to reach 1000 yuan / ton, while the market price in the sales areas will rise to 1150 yuan accordingly/ At the high point of tons, the development prospect of domestic corn market in the later period is promising P65