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Shanghai copper rose about 2,600 yuan last week, breaking through the previous shock range and further strengthening, hitting a price high in recent years, maintaining a strong trend
.
Domestic Shanghai copper explicit stocks fell to the low level in recent years, copper demand under import expansion still performed well, while on the other hand, foreign new crown vaccine research and development accelerated, global economic organizations are confident in next year's economic recovery, copper market confidence to boost prices to further fulfill the medium and long-term biased expectations
.
On the macro front, the US election gradually ended after the beginning of the month, although the new stimulus bill continued to be delayed and the scale is expected to be reduced, but the risk of uncertainty was significantly reduced; At the same time, the progress of vaccines is frequently positive, the European closure has signs of relaxation, coupled with the European and American manufacturing PMI data performance is eye-catching, the market risk appetite sentiment continues to improve, the stock market, oil prices are warming, and the economic recovery is expected to increase, which is more beneficial for copper as an economic barometer
.
In terms of fundamentals, it entered the stage of copper concentrate processing fee negotiations in November, which is still relatively low from the current price, and the mine end will maintain a tight expectation next year; The production and sales data of automobiles on the consumer side performed well, the spot market rose high, and the inventory in the previous period fell to less than 100,000 tons; And in the fourth quarter, the power grid is expected to rush the construction period, and according to the current copper rod market situation, the substitution effect of refined copper on copper scrap increased in November; It also supported the rise
in copper prices.
In the market, spot copper rose by 2440 yuan this week, and good copper premium remained stable around
170 yuan after a slight reduction.
Holders are willing to hold up the price, downstream on-demand replenishment, as the market continues to rise, fear of heights helpless to loosen, the premium is difficult to have room for price reduction, into the end of the month, the market gradually turned to the next monthly ticket quotation, in the near term will remain high
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the RMB was basically stable this week, and the import profit window continued to open, with the window within 50 yuan / ton
.
In the short term, in the case of the continued decline of domestic Shanghai copper inventories, the consumption side may delay the realization of expectations, and it is expected that Shanghai copper is still strong, it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough support transformation around 56,000 and further test
upward.
