Domestic coal in 2021: the relative balance of supply and demand, the price will be stable

Since the beginning of this year, China has led the world in controlling the epidemic and resuming production, demonstrating tremendous institutional advantages and economic resilience.

Macroeconomic stability and improvement to stimulate coal demand

With the implementation of various policies and measures, my country's macro-economy will continue to maintain a steady and positive development trend.

The real estate market continues to recover.

Investment in infrastructure construction maintained growth.

The recovery of the manufacturing industry has accelerated.

Stable and sufficient coal supply, coal production will increase steadily

In the near future, in order to ensure the stable supply of coal in my country in winter, the release of advanced coal production capacity in the main producing areas has been accelerated, the operating rate of coal mines has been maintained at a high level, and coal production has been stable and orderly.

As the winter coal consumption enters the peak season, relevant departments and major coal-producing provinces will continue to take measures to establish a long-term mechanism for ensuring coal supply, optimize coal production organization, accelerate the release of advanced coal production capacity, and take multiple measures to ensure the overall stability of coal production.

　　In terms of safety supervision, in order to prevent coal mine accidents, it is expected that all localities will carry out in-depth special rectification actions for coal mine safety and strengthen coal mine safety supervision.
The safety supervision department will carry out a large-scale investigation of coal mine safety production before the end of the year to severely crack down on violations of coal mine production laws and regulations.
It is expected that the production of some small and medium-sized coal mines will be subject to certain restrictions.
On the whole, industry insiders expect that my country's coal production capacity will increase in the future, coal production will increase steadily, and coal market supply will be stable and sufficient.

　　Efforts to ensure coal supply in the transportation link

　　In accordance with the requirements of the relevant state departments and the General Railway Administration, my country will continue to promote the reform of coal transportation "return to railway" in the future, and support the construction of special railway lines for coal mines.
The railway department will continue to improve the capacity of railway coal transportation and actively promote the strategy of "replenishing passengers with cargo".
The coal shipment volume effectively meets the coal demand of downstream industries.
At the same time, with the comprehensive heating in northern my country, the demand for electricity and coal transportation will continue to grow.
In order to ensure the safe and stable supply of coal, the railway department has strengthened the organization of transportation.
Starting from November, a special operation to ensure the supply of winter coal for 60 days has been carried out to mobilize transportation capacity to ensure coal supply.
Multiple coal transportation channels are concentrated to ensure the heating coal demand of the residents of heating enterprises.

　　In terms of ports, since the beginning of 2000, the coal shipping capacity of ports across the country has increased rapidly, and the total launching and transshipment capacity has now reached about 1 billion tons.
Data show that in the first and mid-November, coal production, sales, and railway transportation volume of key national monitoring companies increased by 5.
1%, 8.
4%, and 6.
0%, respectively, and 6.
7%, 8.
6%, and 4.
8% year-on-year.
Industry insiders predict that my country's coal railway transportation volume will continue to grow in the later period.

　　But at the same time, industry insiders predict that coal imports may decline in the later period.
It is understood that in October, the country imported 13.
73 million tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 46.
6% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.
5%; exports of 190,000 tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 44.
1%, and a month-on-month decrease of 44.
1%; net imports were 13.
54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 46.
6 %, a month-on-month decrease of 26.
2%.
From January to October, my country imported 250 million tons of coal, down 8.
3% year-on-year; and exported 2.
93 million tons of coal, down 35.
6% year-on-year.
In mid-November, my country's key power plants have reached the highest level of coal storage in history, while coastal power plants have a relatively high level of coal storage.
Due to the high level of thermal coal inventory, the demand for thermal coal in coastal areas may weaken.
In addition to the current market and policy environment, it is expected that coal imports may decline in the future.

　　On the whole, industry insiders predict that coal demand will gradually increase.
Major coal-producing provinces and regions will continue to release advanced coal production capacity, expand the supply of high-quality coal production capacity, optimize coal production and development layout and production capacity structure, coal production will increase steadily, and the relationship between supply and demand It will be relatively balanced, and prices will stabilize while rising.

　　Industry experts said that in the future, the closure of coal mines may return to the state of natural shutdown and market elimination.
Mines after capacity replacement will be gradually put into operation, effective production capacity will steadily increase, and supply guarantee capabilities will increase; my country’s new capacity in 2021 is expected to be approximately 100 million tons, the effective production capacity of coal will reach 4.
313 billion tons, an increase of 59 million tons year-on-year.
Industry experts suggest that clean and efficient use of coal should be actively promoted, and energy transformation should be accelerated.
The energy transition must not simply be a process of "de-coalization", and full consideration must be given to the endowment of energy resources and the stage of development.
In the strategy of developing a green and low-carbon energy system, the coal industry should actively play a role in ensuring the safe supply of "ballast stones" for economic and social development, and at the same time build an important "bridge" for a smooth transition to a clean and low-carbon energy system.

Transfer from: Taiyuan Coal Trading Center

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