Discussion on the influence of soybean delay in South America on the market

Introduction: Recently, there are about 130 people in the market who are expected to arrive in Hong Kong in the middle of April Although the news that 10000 tons of imported South American soybeans have been delayed for one month is not clear yet, it is an indisputable fact that a large number of South American soybeans will be delayed soon The main reason is that infrastructure in Brazil and other major South American soybeans producing countries is not matched, which hinders a large number of soybean exports, and the phenomenon of farmers' reluctant to sell soybeans caused by financial turmoil in South America is also spreading At present, the supply of soybeans in the international market is changing from the United States to South America, and the supply of soybeans in the domestic market will mainly rely on imported soybeans and other new and old alternation sensitive period, which has a wide range of impact In this regard, the author tries to analyze the impact of large-scale arrival delay of soybeans in South America: j6h 1, the outbreak time of soybean excessive import crisis is postponed According to j6h statistics, up to now, China's traders have signed up to 17 million tons of imported soybeans, including 10 million tons of cheap South American soybeans Due to the delay in the shipment of one million tons of Brazilian soybeans to China, the schedule for the delivery of soybeans from South America to China has been delayed It is estimated that in April, only 2-3 ships will arrive at South America's port, while in May, the total amount of soybeans to South America will be no more than 7-8 ships at most Therefore, the total amount of soybeans to be imported in May this year will be significantly lower than the market expectation, and the actual amount may even be lower than 1 million tons Although it can not fundamentally change the crisis of excessive import of soybeans in China, it can at least slow down the arrival of a large number of soybeans in South America, and postpone the outbreak of the crisis J6h 2 The price of soybean meal rose suddenly Since April, when a large number of South American soybeans are about to arrive in Hong Kong and the feeding industry has not been fully started, the demand for domestic meal products is low, while the price of soybean meal is rising again and again, so the situation is rapid Up to now, the ex factory price of soybean meal has increased to 2230 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2270 yuan / ton in Qinhuangdao, Hebei, 2250 yuan / ton in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, 2220-2260 yuan / ton in Taiyuan, 2320-2350 yuan / ton in Yinchuan, Ningxia, and 200-300 yuan / ton, especially in Guangdong About 2350 yuan / ton, up nearly 400 yuan / ton The main reason is that the delay of South American soybean disrupts the domestic soybean supply order, makes the domestic soybean meal supply increasingly tense, the soybean meal decline time will be delayed, and the real reduction time will be after the middle of May J6h 3 The profit of oil plant increased In the early stage of j6h, due to the high price of imported soybean and the relatively low price of soybean meal and soybean oil, domestic soybean crushers have been in an embarrassing situation with more profits and losses But recently, driven by the favorable factors such as the delay of soybean shipment in South America, the soybean meal price has achieved a rapid growth, and the soybean oil and salad oil prices have also started to change from weak to strong, and even rebounded, so that the oil factories can turn losses and increase profits completely, and realize the sales at a favorable price, and the profits can be seen According to preliminary calculation, the crushing profit of the oil plant has increased from the initial 10-40 yuan / ton to about 100 yuan / ton J6h 4 Cottonseed products are more popular Due to the fact that the supply of cotton seeds in the domestic market has been greatly reduced, j6h can only supply a small number of oil plants with processing capacity for more than a month Under the effect of the law of value based on scarcity, the sales situation of cottonseed meal and cottonseed oil is getting better and better Recently, affected by the large-scale arrival delay of South American soybean, domestic cottonseed meal and cottonseed oil market is more optimistic driven by the strong price of soybean meal and soybean oil At present, the price of cottonseed meal in Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi and other inland areas is 1250 yuan / ton (over 38% protein) The price of more than 40% protein cottonseed meal is 1300 yuan / ton, with an increase of 50-100 yuan / ton The general price of cottonseed oil is over 5650 yuan / ton The price in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is up to 5740-5760 yuan / ton The price in Yuncheng, Shanxi is 5900 yuan / ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ Over tons, and very popular The price of palm oil increased rapidly At present, under the situation of continuous decline of international palm oil price and continuous arrival of imported palm oil in Hong Kong, one of the important reasons why domestic palm oil price has not declined with the trend is the delay of arrival of South American soybean, which eases the heavy pressure of domestic oil market In the future, with the climate turning hot, demand increasing, and the strong support of soybean extension in South America, the domestic palm oil price is expected to increase faster J6h 6 The psychology of purchasing domestic rapeseed was aggravated Driven by the rich profits of rapeseed crushing in the past years, j6h and j6h have a large gap in the supply of rapeseed this year due to the large reduction in the production of rapeseed last year Oil plants all over the country are generally optimistic about the situation of rapeseed crushing this year Most of them have raised sufficient acquisition funds and are ready to rush for rapeseed In particular, the recent news that the arrival of soybeans in South America will be delayed has stabilized the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil that have been falling continuously, and strengthened people's confidence Therefore, the atmosphere of rush buying in the main production areas has become more intense J6h7, CBOT soybean prices rose J6h is now at a time when U.S soybean prices usually begin to fall, because China and other importing countries turn to purchase cheaper Brazilian and Argentine soybeans However, according to the Chicago Board of trade, CBOT soybean prices soared Soybeans delivered in May rose 12.75 cents to 6.22 U.S dollars per bushel, while contract soybeans rose in July 13.25 cents to $6.2225 In-depth analysis, the main reason is that the progress of a large number of soybeans from South America arriving in China is delayed, and importers continue to buy a large number of us soybeans to make up the supply gap Due to the rapid pace of Chinese soybean import, the US soybean inventory continues to decrease According to the US Department of agriculture, the soybean inventory up to September will fall to the lowest level in seven years J6H j6H