Dimethyl carbonate market peaks and falls

Since June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has deduced a "V"-shaped trend
.
At the beginning of the month, the dimethyl carbonate market bottomed out and the price rose 1,500 yuan (ton price, the same below) to about 7,000 yuan; then the bearish prevailed, and the market peaked and fell.

Industry insiders believe that due to sufficient supply and limited transportation, the adjustment of dimethyl carbonate is still not in place, or it may continue to fall
.

Pessimistic market mentality

Jin Lianchuang analyst Chen Xiaohan believes that the current supply of dimethyl carbonate in the market is sufficient, while the downstream demand side is relatively weak, and a small amount of follow-up is mainly needed
.
Downstream demand decreased, the price center of dimethyl carbonate fell during the week, and the main downstream bidding also declined.

From the perspective of the operation of the installations, one of the total 100,000 tons/year installations of Red Sifang shut down to replace the catalyst on June 18; Dongying Shunxin’s 30,000 tons/year installation is under commissioning; Chongqing Wansheng’s 60,000 tons/year installation technology is in progress.
In the process of shutdown; Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 200,000-ton/year plant is operating at about 80% of its load; Shanxi Zhongke Huian’s 50,000-ton/year plant will be temporarily shut down on June 1 for about one month; Zhejiang Railway Gale’s 40,000-ton/year plant is operating at full load
.
At present, the operating rate of the domestic dimethyl carbonate industry is 68.

Chen Xiaohan said that the temporary shutdown of multiple devices for maintenance should have benefited the market, but the site was full of news that a large coal-to-dimethyl carbonate plant was planned to be put into operation.
Some industry players were pessimistic about the market outlook and were not motivated to enter the market, making it difficult for factories to sell goods.
Lower the ex-factory price of dimethyl carbonate
.

In addition, dimethyl carbonate is also a hazardous chemical
.
Recently, many regions have issued notices on the suspension of hazardous chemicals, which has affected the transportation of dimethyl carbonate, and factory inventory may accumulate accordingly

"Downstream demand is still weak, and transportation restrictions continue.
It is expected that the dimethyl carbonate market will fluctuate weakly or continue to fall
.
" Chen Xiaohan analyzed

Limited cost support

Since mid-May, the propylene oxide market, which is a raw material for dimethyl carbonate, has started a downward trend, and has fallen broadly all the way, continuously breaking expectations
.
The entire downward market lasted for more than one month, and the Shandong cash ex-factory price was lowered by 6,150 yuan, a decrease of 32.

The strong willingness of manufacturers to keep prices, coupled with the increase in orders from downstream polyether manufacturers, has led to a recovery in the market atmosphere, and the inventory of Shandong factories has been tested upward without pressure, further stimulating the market
.
In addition, the Jishen device in the field dropped and the Sinochem Quanzhou device stopped for a short time, and the East China imported goods were in the process of customs clearance.

　　"Propylene oxide raw material propylene shutdown equipment will gradually resume, and the supply pressure will increase
.
At the same time, a certain PDH equipment and contract in North China are gradually recovering, and the benefits brought by the short shutdown gradually weakened; the upstream and downstream maintenance of the northeast region is more concentrated.

　　In addition to the weakening of the cost side, downstream demand is in the off-season, and it is difficult to see a substantial increase.
The propylene oxide market may be weakened, and it is difficult to support the dimethyl carbonate in terms of cost
.

　　Demand is difficult to increase

　　Recently, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is generally poor, terminal purchases are weak, and the impact of some low-cost process products on the market cannot be underestimated
.

　　From the perspective of downstream coatings, adhesives and other industries, after the summer, terminal demand will decrease, and the purchase of dimethyl carbonate is limited.
A small amount of just needs follow-up, and it is difficult to increase the volume
.

　　The other downstream polycarbonate industry devices are mostly in a state of temporary shutdown, which is difficult to drive the growth of the demand for dimethyl carbonate
.
Cangzhou Dahua’s new plant is under commissioning and is expected to be shut down for half a month; Shanghai Mitsubishi entered the scheduled maintenance period in early May; Wanhua Chemical’s plant operating rate is about 70% and is expected to be shut down for maintenance in August; Covestro’s plant will restart on June 23 and start construction To be restored; the operating rate of the two lines of Zhejiang Railway's gale installation is about 70%; the overall operating rate of Luxi Chemical is about 20%
.

　　"Zhetie Dafeng polycarbonate plant has its own supporting dimethyl carbonate plant.
Lihuayi fixed a small amount of bidding every week, and the rest of the plant was started at a low level.
The overall purchase was on demand.
It is difficult to form a strong support for the raw material dimethyl carbonate
.
"Zhang Yi, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said in an analysis
.