Dialectical view on the influence of SARS on soybean and soybean meal

Introduction: concerns about China's domestic SARS affected the CBOT market last night The CBOT soybean and soybean meal fell at the same time The soybean contract fell 7 cents in May to close at 603 cents Under the influence of the external market, Liandou and Lianyuan also fell sharply in the early morning of today (24) To some extent, the market showed atypical panic selling The a0307 contract fell to 2751 yuan in an instant, and the m0308 contract also touched the stop price It can be considered that today's dramatic changes in the market are clearly continuing to be affected by the SARS incident However, in the afternoon today, the performance of soybeans and meal appeared differentiation After the short-term panic of soybeans, the stabilization and recovery appeared, while meal continued to stay low The reason for this phenomenon is that the impact of SARS on soybeans and soybean meal is not the same It is still necessary to analyze the supply and demand of the two DB2 reviewed the recent market fluctuations, the biggest change should be continuous meal futures, the cumulative range of unilateral price fluctuations in a month reached as much as 400 yuan per ton Before this rally, due to the relatively low price of soybean meal and the general expectation of the market that South American soybean will impact the price of soybean and its downstream products after arriving in Hong Kong, the oil processing manufacturers are not optimistic about the future market, and the price of soybean meal is low At the same time, due to the high prices of domestic soybeans, they have withdrawn from the crushing market, while the prices of soybeans in the United States are relatively high in Hong Kong Small and medium-sized oil plants are unable to directly lock in the cost of imported soybeans through the external market, resulting in a significant reduction in their crushing profits, or even a certain loss In this case, some oil plants have taken measures to stop production for maintenance or to reduce production The shutdown rate of typical oil plants in Shandong once reached 70% At the same time, due to the special inspection on the circulation of imported soybeans continuously strengthened in the main port areas in the early stage, some oil plants were out of stock In addition, the delayed arrival of South American soybeans in Hong Kong can not effectively meet the demand for pressing raw materials in the short term Therefore, the impact of high price raw materials on the squeezing profit makes the oil plants generally lack of start-up, which leads to a sharp decline in the supply of soybean meal, which is the direct reason for the recent surge in soybean meal prices The rapid rise of the price of DB2 soybean meal, especially the excessive speed of the price rise, has greatly exceeded the market expectations At the same time, as the raw material of soybean meal, the price of soybean is relatively stable, so the squeezing profit of the oil plant has been greatly increased in the short term However, the soaring price of soybean meal in oil plants is also underestimated In addition, the lack of construction in the early stage makes the reserves of raw materials relatively limited The rapid growth of squeezing profits has greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of oil factories, so they have increased their efforts to buy soybeans on the outer plate In addition, in the early stage, many oil companies had a large number of washes in the 580 cent line, while the fund was actively buying to increase long positions, so the fund also took the opportunity to pull up the soybean price, making domestic buyers have to buy at a higher price In a sense, the soaring domestic soybean meal price, to a certain extent, has driven the CBOT soybean price to rise together DB2, however, the recent SARS incident reversed the rapid rise of soybean meal in the short term, resulting in a rapid drop in its price In four trading days this week, the price of m0308 contract fell by as much as 160 yuan There is no doubt that the emergence of SARS event has a serious impact on demand Feed enterprises in Guangdong Province, a representative region, have declined rapidly Other regions in China have not been greatly affected by the problem of cognitive level, but the future demand decline is an indisputable fact In addition, as China is a net exporter of soybean meal, the annual export volume is about 1 million tons It is obvious that the SARS event has a great impact on China's soybean meal export It is reported that in recent days, soybean meal exports from major domestic oil plants have stopped quoting Therefore, we must make new adjustments to the future supply and demand situation In the case of few supply side variables, the increase and decrease in demand is particularly important DB2, however, although the impact of SARS may lead to a decline in soybean meal demand, it does not mean that soybean demand will be affected equally As far as the domestic soybean market is concerned, the share of edible soybean in domestic soybean is higher and higher, and the pricing range of edible soybean has a strong say in domestic soybean In addition, in the short-term surge of purchasing power caused by SARS, as a daily necessity, the demand for soybeans has not declined, but may rise The reality is that the domestic soybean stock in Northeast China is relatively limited, and the distribution is very scattered As far as the soybean futures market is concerned, the main contradiction between the huge virtual position and the actual delivery capacity has not changed In the early stage, the rumor that the grain departments of Heilongjiang and Jilin might sell 300000 tons of stored soybeans was just a rumor, which did not have the actual operating conditions Even if the selling behavior occurred, the quantity would be relatively limited, and it was only a manifestation of recessive inventory dominance, which would not completely reverse the supply-demand relationship of domestic soybeans and the main contradiction of soybean market DB2 all in all, SARS does have a deeper impact on soybean and soybean meal, but the impact is more reflected in the impact on demand As for soybeans as raw materials, the change of supply is the main aspect of the contradiction Therefore, SARS has a relatively limited impact on soybeans After digesting the short-term negative, it is still expected to shock upward As for soybean meal as a product, the change of demand is the decisive factor In addition, South American soybean will gradually arrive in Hong Kong, and the later supply will be more sufficient, so the future price trend is not optimistic DB2