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From the perspective of the destocking range of domestic explicit stocks, China's actual copper demand is better than the apparent demand
.
SHFE inventory changes are seasonal, that is, the sixth week after the Spring Festival is generally the high point of inventory during the year, and then boosted by the consumption season, inventory began to decline until it began to replenish
in the 19th week after the holiday.
Based on the currently available SHFE subtotal inventory data, the high inventory in 2017 was 325,300 tons, down 60,600 tons from the 2016
high.
In addition, the decline in copper inventories was also significantly larger than in 2016, indicating that destocking efforts in 2017 have strengthened, and China's actual demand is better than apparent demand
.
From the observation of global explicit stocks, it can also confirm that the demand for refined copper has shown signs of improvement
.
In 2017, LME+SHFFE stocks reached a high of 662,900 tons (LME stocks 337,600 tons, SHFE stocks 325,300 tons), but by the end of April, LME+SHFFE stocks had fallen back to 489,000 tons, down 173,900 tons (-26.
2%); In the same period of 2016, the data fell by 91,700 tons, a decrease of only 16.
7%, which indicates that the destocking of global explicit stocks in the same period of 2017 is significantly stronger than in 2016, confirming that demand has improved
.
In addition, the proportion of warehouse receipts cancelled by London copper has continued to climb since the fourth quarter of 2016 and hit a five-year level of 77%, which also indicates low deliverable inventory and improved demand
.
The hidden concern that weighs on prices is reflected in hidden inventories
in China's bonded zones.
China's bonded zone inventories rose 39% from the end of 2016 to 667,500 tonnes, of which nearly half were liquid inventories, known as arbitrage and financing inventories, meaning that once the import profit window opens, nearly 310,000 tonnes of supply pressure will be released in the domestic market, which means the potential pressure
on about 60,000 short orders.
