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Last week, the strength of Lun aluminum continued to reach a new high, while Shanghai aluminum maintained a high level of strong volatility, and the Shanghai-London ratio narrowed
.
Overall, with the optimistic macro data of the manufacturing industry in many countries around the world, market sentiment boosted the rise of U.
S.
stocks and the rise of aluminum, while Shanghai aluminum is difficult to continue to reach new highs
due to the slowdown in demand and a slight increase in inventory.
On the supply side: the resumption of production accelerated under the background of high profits, and the operating capacity increased to 36.
974 million tons; on the cost side: alumina slowly declined, the coal was weak, the cost weakened, and the profit was further expanded
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot maintained premium but narrowed the range, while Lun aluminum discount maintained a high level;
Stocks: LME stocks fell slightly to 1.
621 million tons, up 07,000 tons to 228,900 tons in the previous period, and social banks increased by 15,000 tons to 731,000 tons
.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the domestic off-season inventory remained low in July and August and did not accumulate significantly, demand decreased slightly while supply continued to increase, and the marginal supply and demand structure weakened
.
However, due to the current low inventory and the rhythm of domestic production capacity release, aluminum prices are dominated by funds, and the game between strong reality and weak expectations is becoming increasingly intense
.
Until effective production is released, strong spot support from low inventories will remain
.
Operationally, it is recommended to speculate long orders to continue to hold with the trend, set protective stop losses, and pay attention to the risk
of large fluctuations at high levels.
