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Spice varieties have always been one of the hot varieties that have attracted much attention from businesses in the medicinal materials market, but due to the shrinking demand due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020-2022, the sluggish market of spices is still unexpected
。 In 2023, with the significant expansion of production in production areas and the gradual recovery of customs clearance at ports, in addition, the liberalization of epidemic prevention and control will also promote the rebound of market demand, how will the market of spices change?
1.
Review of 2022
The pullback in the market is the main theme, but short-term demand has led to a slight increase
1.
1 Consumption: Although the people's spending power has declined, it has not fluctuated much
Figure 1: Consumer Price Index Fluctuations from 2020 to 2022 (Source: National Bureau of Statistics)
From the perspective of consumption index: in the new crown epidemic in the past 3 years, people's consumption expenditure is at a low level, and consumption power has decreased
significantly.
From 2020 to 2022, the average consumer price index of residents was 100.
0, 100.
1 and 100.
1, showing slight fluctuations, and the fluctuations in 2022 were relatively moderate; from 2020 to 2022, the average consumer price index of health care was 100.
1, 100.
0 and 100.
0, respectively, with smaller price fluctuations, and the fluctuation range in 2022 was also more moderate
。
Through comparison, it is found that the consumer price index is negatively correlated with the epidemic situation, and the consumer price index is generally lower than 100.
0, while the consumer price index of health care is positively correlated with the epidemic, and the consumer price index of health care is generally higher than 100.
0
.
1.
2 Enterprise procurement: In addition to raw material reserves, corporate purchasing enthusiasm has declined
Figure 2: Fluctuations of purchasing managers' index of traditional Chinese medicines in China from 2017 to 2022
From the perspective of procurement index: in 2022, although the purchasing managers' index of traditional Chinese medicine fluctuated at a high level, the overall trend fell
significantly.
From January to April 2022, the purchasing managers' index of traditional Chinese medicine rose from 58.
99 to 60.
69, an increase of 2.
88%; In May 2022, with the surge in the production capacity of some raw materials, the purchasing managers' index began to decline significantly, from 60.
99 to 57.
53, a decline of 5.
67%.
Due to the rare high temperature and drought in the provinces surrounding the Yangtze River Basin in 2022, the purchasing managers' index of traditional Chinese medicines fluctuated
back and forth between 57.
38-59.
29.
Through comparison, it is found that in 2022, the purchasing willingness of pharmaceutical companies will be significantly weakened compared with 2021, and the reason is that, on the one hand, the dividend period of traditional Chinese medicine in the past three years has led to a surge in the production capacity of raw materials of various traditional Chinese medicinal materials; On the other hand, although the yield capacity of some varieties in 2021 and 2022 will decline due to abnormal weather impacts, which will stimulate enterprises and capital to enter the Chinese herbal medicine market to a certain extent, due to the large risk factor, the popularity is not as good as in
2021 。
1.
3 Production and demand of spices: the surge in production capacity caused the market to fall, and the demand pulled ushered in a rebound market
Figure 3: Changes in the price index of spices raw materials in China from 2017 to 2022
From the perspective of the spice price index: after 2021, it fell from a high level and showed obvious fluctuations
.
After the dividend period in 2020 and 2021, the production capacity of spice varieties has surged.
At the same time, after 2021, foreign trade began to gradually recover, and the source of imported goods was also effectively supplemented to a certain extent, resulting in a significant decline in spice varieties
.
Among them, the price of pepper, male cloves, nutmeg, white cardamom, cumin, grass fruit and other varieties fell relatively large
.
In addition to the edible characteristics of some spices, their medicinal demand has also changed due to the impact of the epidemic, such as star anise, dried ginger, white pygmy, tangerine peel, cinnamon, sand kernel, etc
.
1.
4 Spice market: The pressure of raw material production in 2022 will decrease compared with 2021
Figure 4: Market fluctuations of 24 commonly used spices raw materials in 2021 and 2022
From the change in the price fluctuation range of spices Chinese medicine raw materials: the number of varieties with abnormal fluctuations in the market in 2022 has decreased
compared with 2021.
In 2022, among the 24 commonly used spices of Chinese medicine raw materials, 4.
17% of the varieties with a market fluctuation of ≥100% accounted for 4.
17%, down 8.
33% from 2021; Varieties with market fluctuations of 50%-100% accounted for 8.
33%, down 12.
50% from 2021; Varieties with market fluctuations of 20%-50% accounted for 54.
17%, an increase of 29.
17%
compared with 2021.
The market fluctuation range > more than 50%, indicating that the supply and demand relationship of varieties has changed, and the production of raw materials will be affected
to a certain extent.
The number of varieties with a volatility of more than 50% in 2022 decreased by 20.
83% compared with 2021, reflecting the reduction
in raw material production pressure in 2022.
The market fluctuation range < 50%, reflecting the obvious fluctuation of the market due to the short-term shortage of materials, and once the supply is eased, the price will return to rationality
.
In 2022, the proportion of this part of the variety is significantly higher than in 2021, indicating that the tight supply of spice raw materials has been alleviated, and the supply side has been effectively guaranteed, and inventory digestion will be the next problem
to be solved.
1.
5 Representative raw material analysis: most of the spice market has fallen
Star anise: The annual demand is about
55,000 tons.
This variety is mainly distributed in Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong and Hunan; Taiwan Province also has a small distribution
.
After 2018, due to the sluggish demand and insufficient consumption in the catering industry, the domestic star anise demand decreased significantly, with a decrease of 10%-15%.
Although star anise once again broke through the historical high price in 2021, its social consumption has not increased significantly, and its decline will continue as the production capacity of star anise gradually recovers in 2022, and it is expected that the price of star anise will still fall
in 2023.
White cardamom: The annual demand is about
4500 tons.
It is found in Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Sri Lanka, Guatemala and South America
.
In 2020, affected by the epidemic, border trade was seriously blocked, and white cardamom exceeded the 300 yuan (kilogram price, the same below) mark under the role of empty inventory, popularity and capital
.
After 2021, border trade will gradually recover, the volume of goods coming from production areas will continue to increase, and the white cardamom market will usher in a cliff-like dive, and it is expected that the price of white cardamom will still run
at a low level in 2023.
Pepper: The global annual demand is about 450,000 tons, and the domestic demand is about
35,000 tons.
Domestic pepper is mainly distributed in Hainan, and foreign countries are mainly distributed in Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Sri Lanka and other countries
.
In 2021, due to the decline in production capacity in major producing countries, the popularity of pepper in the world and China soared, driving the market to continue to rise, but the epidemic made global demand weak, the overall consumption of pepper was not as good as before, and the price continued to be weak
.
At the same time, pepper plants have entered the peak production period, coupled with the drag of huge inventory, it is expected that the pepper market will remain sluggish
in 2023.
Bai Zhi: The annual demand is about
25,000 tons.
This variety is mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, Liaoning, Anhui and other provinces, of which Sichuan, Hebei, Henan and Zhejiang are the four historical production areas
of Baizhi.
Due to the decline in consumption this year, the social use of Bai Zhi has also decreased by 25%-30%.
Although the production of Bai Zhi has been significantly reduced in recent years, and the yield production capacity has decreased significantly due to abnormal weather, due to the large land area and wide distribution of production areas, the overall production capacity is still relatively abundant, and the demand for medicinal channels has increased slightly in the past two years, and its market has therefore shown repeated shocks, and it is expected that Bai Zhi will still be dominated by shocks in 2023
.
Tangerine peel: The annual demand is about
30,000 tons.
This variety is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, Yunnan and other places
.
Affected by the global economic recession in recent years, canned exports have been significantly hindered, and raw material consumption has declined significantly, resulting in a decline in the national production capacity of tangerine
peels.
However, due to the large area of tangerine peel raw materials, once the market rises, its production will also follow, and it is expected that the price of tangerine peel will still have room
to fall in 2023.
Dried ginger: The annual demand is about
33,000 tons.
This variety is mainly distributed in Yunnan, Sichuan, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou and other places
.
2020-2021 is the highlight period of the dry ginger market in recent years, but due to the rapid rise of the market, centered on the main production areas, the production enthusiasm in various places is high, and the production capacity has surged
.
Due to the current overall capacity expansion of more than 3 times, it is expected that the dry ginger market will continue to be sluggish
in 2023.
Galangal: Annual demand is 4000tons or so
.
This variety is mainly distributed in Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan; In addition, it is also distributed
in Fujian, Jiangxi, Taiwan and other provinces.
The high price period of galangal lasted for 2 years, and farmers in the production area were highly motivated to plant, and it is expected that the galangal market will usher in a rapid decline
in 2023 on the existing basis as newly planted plants produce new plants.
Cloves: The annual demand is about
2,000 tons.
This variety is mainly distributed in Penang, Sumatara, Java, Malay Peninsula, Vietnam and Oceania in Indonesia.
China is mainly distributed in Hainan Province and Leizhou Peninsula, and it is also cultivated
in Guangdong, Guangxi and other places.
As border trade returns to normal and incoming goods from production areas increase, it is expected that the market will be significantly corrected
in 2023.
2.
Looking ahead to 2023
Under the rebound in demand, the surge in production capacity may drag down the market
2.
1 The production of traditional Chinese medicine raw materials has ushered in rapid growth, and it is inevitable that the market will fall
From 2020 to 2022, the market of traditional Chinese medicine raw materials has gradually increased under the background of global inflation, and some varieties have even experienced high prices
in the past five years.
In this context, farmers in the production area are enthusiastic about planting, and as most varieties gradually usher in the harvest period, the surge in production capacity will gradually appear, and it is inevitable
that the market will fall.
2.
2 Demand for spices is expected to rebound, but it will take time to fully recover
Under inflation, global consumption is sluggish, especially inflation has a greater
impact on the catering industry.
As the most important component of catering consumption, the consumption of raw materials and import and export of spices have been affected to varying degrees, and the demand has shrunk by about 23%-25%.
With the gradual recovery of public consumption in 2023, the demand for spices is also expected to recover to the relative high point of the past three years, but it is difficult to return to the level of 2019
.
2.
3 Capital and natural disasters are key factors
Spice varieties are relatively large, and most of them are internationally circulated varieties, which are vulnerable to capital manipulation; Natural disasters such as drought and frost will also cause a large reduction in the production of spices, so in 2023, these two factors may become the key to determining the
market trend of some spices varieties.
2.
4 Beware of the "bad market" of spices
On the one hand, it is an indisputable fact that the supply of raw materials for traditional Chinese medicine exceeds demand; On the other hand, the "sky-high" market created by some raw materials will continue the blind expansion of the main production areas; In addition, spice varieties are generally less difficult to plant, highly adaptable, and more prone to blind production
.
Therefore, although the current market of some spices has gradually declined, but this is only a prelude, it is expected that after April 2023, there may be a decline in the overall market, especially in the second half of 2023, with the production of a large number of domestic medicinal materials, the oversupply of spices may intensify, and even some varieties will appear "bad market"
.
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