Demand is weakened, expectations are dependent Short-term copper prices are mainly volatile

Medium-term logic: the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in 2017 is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, and although the refining capacity is more put in, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make the copper price fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.

In terms of the market, on the 22nd, the spot market discount expanded to -60 yuan / ton, compared with the historical discount, the current discount is still not very large, from the logical level, the expectation of weak demand has not landed, and the reaction of the spot market is still not complete, however, the total supply has contracted month-on-month, which has strong support
for the spot market.

Although the copper concentrate processing fee in the spot market has improved recently, because it is about to enter the quarterly processing fee game, short-term smelters are expected to remain restrained, or will not purchase copper concentrate spot in large quantities
.
In addition, Yangshan copper premium continued to increase, and the impact of the breakeven of copper imports continued to play a role; However, at present, the discount of imported copper in the spot market to other brands has not continued to be excessively expanded, and the amount of imported copper is not very high
for the time being.
Overall, the supply level has not expanded
.

On the whole, there has been no major change in the current market logic, and the expectation of weak demand still exists, but the spot price is relatively firm due to the previous month-on-month contraction, supporting copper prices, and the overall copper price is still in a volatile stage
.