Decline in palm oil production in Malaysia

Introduction: Foreign Agricultural Service Bureau, USDA 1、 Summary: in the third quarter of 2001, the average monthly rainfall in Malaysia was below normal, which was only the second time in the past 10 quarters In addition, excessive rainfall from November 2000 to January 2001 may reduce the pollination prospects of palm trees Since high yields are usually associated with rainfall above average, the decline in rainfall in the third quarter has reduced the prospects for palm oil yields 2 Abnormal rainfall pattern: in the third quarter of 2001, the rainfall dropped to 161 mm, which was the second time in the past 10 quarters that it was below normal On the contrary, in November and December of 2000 and January of 2001, the monthly rainfall was over 300 mm, which resulted in the influence of pollination obstruction on palm oil production in the third quarter of 2001 The harvest of palmetto fruit is about 6 months after pollination, so the impact of excessive rainfall may end around the new year 3 The model shows that the per unit palm oil production in Malaysia has declined: due to the decline of rainfall in Malaysia, the MRRM of the Foreign Agricultural Service Bureau of the United States Department of agriculture forecasts that the per unit palm oil production in Malaysia in 2001 / 02 market year (October to September of the next year) is only 3.79 tons / ha The data is slightly higher than the average, but lower than the annual yield of 4.06 tons / HA in 2000 / 01 The Malaysian palm oil authority reported that Malaysian crude palm oil production in the third quarter was 2.98 million tons, lower than the 3.47 million tons predicted by MRRM Although the output is lower than expected, the annual yield of 4.06 tons / HA in 2000 / 01 is the highest since 1982 / 83 The higher unit yield is due to rainfall that has been above average since the third quarter of 1998 Based on an estimated palm tree area of 3.31 million hectares, MRRM forecasts Malaysian crude palm oil production of 12.5 million tons in the 2001 / 02 market year The forecast is higher than this month's official USDA estimate of 12.2 million tons Information from other sources suggests that palm oil production in the coming months may be lower than that predicted by MRRM.