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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsAbroad, on December 15, the Fed announced its interest rate decision, raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, and the Fed's interest rate decision was capped at 0.
75% and the lower limit was 0.
5%.
The result of the rate hike was in line with market expectations, but the Fed's decision statement said it expected three rate hikes in 2017 and expected a more rapid rate hike path in the future, raising the long-term federal funds rate forecast by 0.
1 percentage points to 3.
0%.
At a subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the interest rate meeting believes that the economy has made considerable progress
.
Overall, the current market is generally concerned about the Fed's future interest rate hike path, which can be said to be not near but long-term, and short-term optimism in the peripheral market is rising
.
Domestically, recently, the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general tone
of seeking progress while maintaining stability.
Promoting supply-side structural reform is a good recipe
for adjusting the economic structure and transforming the mode of economic development given by the Party Central Committee on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the phased characteristics of the domestic economy.
The most important purpose is to meet demand, the main direction of attack is to improve the quality of supply, and the fundamental way is to deepen reform
.
In general, the domestic economy maintains stable operation, liquidity is tight near the end of the year, and 17 years have entered the substantive stage of adapting to the new normal of the economy, considering that the probability of the US dollar continuing to strengthen in 2017 is still large, and global liquidity is facing an inflection point, which in turn has a greater impact on the formation of China's base currency, balance of payments, financial stability, etc.
, China's monetary policy easing is expected to be delayed, and the interest rate cut and RRR reduction rate in the first half of the year is small
.
The domestic economy is expected to sustain its recovery
amid the throes of structural reforms.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (aluminum): According to cable network monitoring data, this month's aluminum price trend is weak, the month fell into a weak shock market, represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the aluminum price at the beginning of the month was 13970 yuan / ton, the end of the month aluminum price was 12910 yuan / ton, down 1060 yuan, the overall decline was 7.
6%.
Macro: the year-end short cover thrust and rebound, the continuous reduction of positions makes Shanghai aluminum short-term or support, and the external market is affected by the pressure of RMB depreciation, the performance has been weaker than the internal market, in addition, the Federal Reserve recently announced that the federal funds rate target range will be raised by 25 basis points to the level of 0.
5% to 0.
75%, coupled with the previous rise is too high, aluminum prices began to give up gains, year-end off-season, demand declined, aluminum prices fell
。 At present, the market is worried about the oversupply of the aluminum market in the medium and long term, and the possibility of funds re-entering the short market after the holiday is high, mainly because the environmental protection supervision in December makes the aluminum production less, and does not rule out the possibility of a sharp rush for downstream smelting in the first few weeks of January 2017, so the market after New Year's Day is not optimistic
.
Market: During the month, the price of aluminum continued to fall, and the spot price once returned to around 12550 yuan / ton, and downstream enterprises replenished a large number of goods at a low level, and the overall transaction picked up
.
On the last trading day before New Year's Day, the market transaction is average, the price returns to a high level in the morning, and the holders are more active in shipments, but then there is almost no business to do, the market supply is less, and the price is also raised
.
Aluminum profile factories were affected by environmental pressure, and production was damaged in December, and it is expected that after New Year's Day, downstream procurement and stocking will be positive
again.
Near the end of the year, large holders closed their accounts a few years ago, the demand of downstream enterprises turned weak, on-demand procurement was the mainstay, and only some enterprises were the settlement demand for the current month's ticket, pushing up the spot premium, and the transaction was slightly active
driven by the demand for bills.
Affected by factors at the end of the recent year, railway capacity in Xinjiang, Gansu and other places is tight, and arrivals continue to be low, but the high premium factor of the monthly ticket is eliminated, and it is expected that the short-term premium will continue to maintain a high position
.
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