Dalian spot soybean has little impact on domestic soybean meal price

Introduction: news on August 19; last weekend, the market confirmed that spot soybeans delivered by Dalian futures exchange flowed into the domestic market, and many small and medium-sized oil plants got long-awaited raw materials for this purpose The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly affected by this This week, domestic soybean meal prices rose sharply again Of course, we should be rational about this rise in soybean meal prices The main reason for the soybean meal price increase is the impact of foreign countries, especially the Chicago Board of trade soybean price increase, which is little affected by domestic factors We believe that if the price of soybeans on the external market remains stable, the price of domestic soybean meal will return to its equilibrium point After all, the current price of soybean meal has made most of the feed production enterprises leave the market and wait and see We just want to analyze the impact of spot soybean of Dalian Futures Exchange on domestic soybean meal price Despite the external factors that caused the price rise of soybean meal, the entry of spot soybean into the domestic market of Dalian futures exchange will alleviate the situation of domestic supply shortage Since the recovery of domestic soybean imports in the middle of June, the arrival volume of domestic soybean imports has been about 3 million tons However, we must note that the domestic receiving units are mainly domestic large-scale oil and fat enterprises Most of these enterprises import soybeans for their own use and have little market share At the beginning of June, the supply of domestic soybeans had dried up, and most of the small and medium-sized oils in China could not maintain production, so most of these enterprises were in a state of shutdown Even after the recovery of imported soybeans, these enterprises in China did not have the necessary raw materials for production This time the spot soybean of Dalian futures exchange flows into the market, which makes it possible for these enterprises to resume production and has a certain impact on the supply of soybean meal However, this batch of spot soybeans has little impact on the domestic soybean meal price, mainly due to the following reasons: first, the amount of soybeans flowing into the market this time is relatively small It is estimated that there will be about 800000 tons of soybean warehouse receipts before the delivery of Dalian soybean futures in May, and 200000-300000 tons of spot goods will flow into the domestic market after May According to the positions announced by Dalian Futures Exchange last week, the warehouse receipts will be reduced by about 200000 tons, and the remaining warehouse receipts will be about 350000 tons That is to say, 200000 tons of soybeans are likely to have entered the domestic market, which has little impact on the domestic demand of 1.5-1.8 million tons / month 2 The soybean price for delivery in Dalian is not low From the information learned by the relevant departments, the delivery price of Dalian spot soybean is more than 2190 yuan / ton In addition to the delivery fee and short-distance transportation fee, it is estimated that the price delivered to the oil plant is more than 2300 yuan / ton, and the difference between the price of imported soybean and that of imported soybean is 60-100 yuan / ton Due to the difference in oil yield between domestic soybean and imported soybean, there is not much advantage in such price difference The impact of Dalian soybean on the domestic soybean meal price can be reflected from the soybean meal price trend in Shandong last weekend After the above information is confirmed, the soybean meal price in Shandong has remained strong again only after a small reduction In March and August, the sharp decline of imported soybeans reduced the impact to the minimum According to the report of the international business daily, China imported 1710000 tons of soybeans in July, more than twice the amount imported in June However, according to the statistics of COFCO futures, in the first 10 days of August, the quantity of domestic soybeans imported was only 262300 tons, and it is estimated that the quantity of soybeans imported in August will be 700000 tons, about 1 million tons less than that in July Therefore, the impact of 200000-300000 tons of spot soybeans in Dalian Commodity Exchange on the domestic market will be digested by a large number of imported soybeans in August Through the above analysis, we can see that part of the soybean spot in Dalian Commodity Exchange entering the domestic market will not fundamentally change the domestic soybean supply and demand situation Generally speaking, the domestic soybean supply is still tight in August, and the price of domestic soybean meal will continue to be affected by the soybean import cost and the change of domestic demand for soybean meal In August, the domestic soybean meal The price will remain above 2000 yuan / ton.