Current situation and Prospect of pig industry market in China

Introduction: first, the current corn price is not good for pig raising, and feed resources are the basis for pig raising Corn prices have been rising for one year In June, corn prices reached 1.23 yuan / kg, 7.04% higher than the average price for half a year, and 61.5 yuan per ton of corn compared with last month Due to the increase of corn price, wheat bran price also increased In June, it was 1.05 yuan, 0.06 yuan higher than the half year average price of 0.99 yuan; pig feed price was 1.61 yuan / kg, 3.14% higher: the highest price in three months In terms of location, 22 provinces increased corn prices in June, accounting for 73.3% of the country's total Outstanding performance in Beijing, Hainan, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Hunan, Yunnan, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Fujian, Hubei and other places The price increase of corn in China is the most in Beijing, up 0.37 yuan, and most provinces are also around 0.10 yuan In addition, corn prices vary greatly in different regions Different provinces and regions need to analyze their own price situation at any time, because the impact of feed price changes on the breeding industry needs to be magnified several times In order to analyze the position difference of corn price area and make each province understand its position, we use the half year average price to compare At present, the number of high price areas has increased from 3 in the first half of the year to 10, with an average price of 1.327 yuan, 17% higher than the national average They are Hainan, Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Hunan, Shanghai and Anhui The price of corn far exceeds the international market price Other provinces and regions are also in the range of 0.90-1.20 yuan From 15 provinces in the same period last year, there is only one Jilin Province left In the second half of 2001, it is expected that feed prices will continue to rise, thus increasing pig raising costs and reducing profits pose a threat to pig raising Therefore, we need to be vigilant and pay attention to production adjustment in the second half of the year to prevent passivity Especially in the south, corn prices are likely to remain high, so the South should be prepared to import corn The price of foreign grain market has also changed a lot The price difference in the same market can be 10-20% in a month Enterprises need to monitor the price trend of the international market dynamically and purchase cautiously 2 Good trade relations are conducive to the stable price of protein feed represented by soybean meal, which has been stable This is the result of handling the relationship between domestic production and international trade In one and a half years, soybean meal prices in 17 provinces and regions maintained at a moderate price of 1.80-2.20 yuan / kg High price provinces are mainly in the inland, namely Yunnan, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Chongqing, Gansu, Hainan, Sichuan, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces The price reached an average of 2.433 yuan per kilogram, 15% higher than the national average Due to the limited amount of protein feed, and the international market price is lower than China's, soybean meal has been imported all the time, which is conducive to stabilizing prices, so handling international trade is beneficial to pig breeding In June, the average price of soybean meal was 2.12 yuan, 3.67% lower than the average price of 2.20 yuan in half a year, and 55.9 yuan per ton lower, which would not affect the price rise of pig feed On the contrary, corn prices rose in 22 provinces It seems that corn is the main factor affecting the price rise of pig feed, and the resource situation is not optimistic Of course, international trade import adjustment can be used when necessary It is estimated that it is impossible to see the abnormal price rise of corn in 1995, but the impact on animal husbandry still needs to be paid attention to Third, the price trend of pig is declining Facing the loss in the later period, the pig raising system in China is different from that in foreign countries, which is very complex from resources, production to market The resources, technology and equipment used by them are totally different Now the price of pig is only the average price The price of pigs fluctuates all the time For example, taking 6.50 yuan as the profit and loss boundary point, after 44 months' peak, the average price per kilogram is 8.056 yuan, and then it turns into the trough So far, it has lasted for 32 months, with the average price of 6.133 yuan, the highest price of 6.993 and the lowest price of 4.887 yuan At a loss In order to stabilize the urban market, the price of pig is limited or subsidized by the state, so the price does not fully reflect the profit Although the price is in a trough in the past year, it is still profitable to measure the price of pig food The cost of raising pigs has risen recently due to the rise in corn prices It is predicted that in the second half of 2001, both the price and profit of pigs will be affected In the difficult period of pig raising, even if the price of pigs remains unchanged or rises slightly, the profit will decrease, and the number of pigs on hand and on the market will also be affected It is predicted that the price of live pig will be between 5.58 yuan and 6.05 yuan in the near future 4 In the past half year, the price of piglets has been rising steadily Pay attention to the risks in the latter half year The price of China's piglets fluctuates obviously The highest price is 15.7 yuan per kilogram in September 1997 The lowest price is about 5.14 yuan in June 1999, with a difference of 3.1 times It can be seen that piglet production needs to predict the fluctuation rule from time to time Generally, the price of piglets is consistent with the profit of pig raising, which indicates that the breeding of pigs depends on the profit of pigs, and there is no correct production forecast Scientific decision-making, piglet prices should not be fully synchronized with the profit cycle of pigs, piglet prices should rise and fall in advance of four to six months, because piglets to the market after four to six months, not so far It can be seen that breeding pig farms need to constantly predict the fluctuation rule of fat pig profits and control the production quantity of piglets On the contrary, the peak of piglet price is about 6 months after the peak of specific price of pig and grain As a result, the price of piglets fluctuates excessively and sows are slaughtered It can be seen that the market cooperation between pig breeding and pig fattening is not good and both sides suffer losses Compared with the above price table, in the first half of this year, the price of piglets remained high, while the price of pig food ratio has been in deficit for three months It shows that the piglets purchased at high price in the first half of the year will be fed with high price feed When they go out of the market, they will encounter low price and serious losses of fat pigs This is a national mistake, of course, enterprises and farmers have suffered losses The national economy has also suffered macro losses The importance of market information and forecast analysis is self-evident We have known that piglet 10.0 yuan is the profit and loss boundary point, which may be appropriate in the early stage In recent years, due to technological progress and market competition, it is obviously on the high side and needs to be changed The average price of recent trough period piglets is 7.86 yuan, which has lasted for 38 months The price ratio of pig food has been in deficit, reaching 5.12, and the price ratio of feed and pig for large-scale pig raising is 3.95, which has also been in deficit The situation of enterprises is not good, and the price of piglets is 1.28% lower than the average price in three months It can be seen that piglets will definitely lose money when they go out of the market after 4-6 months If the pig farm controls the supplement, the price of piglets will fall sharply The breeders should pay attention to adjusting the management decision in time, adjusting the structure of herds, reducing the reproduction of piglets and striving to reduce the losses 5 In the past half a year, the profitability of pig farming has been changing from profit to loss, represented by the price ratio of pig to grain According to the statistics of 85 months, the fluctuation period of pig raising is about 37 months, which is one year shorter than that of foreign countries At present, it is in the trough of the third cycle, which has lasted for three months The price ratio has dropped from 6.246 to 1 of the peak to 5.115 Pig industry will enter the loss period in the second half of 2001 If the fluctuation period is 37 months, the loss will last for 16 months in theory, then it can be transferred into profit In June 2001, the price of pork was 10.30 yuan, which was in line with the profit situation There are 22 provinces with live pigs in deficit, and Jiangsu, Yunnan, Guangxi, Hainan, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hunan, Beijing, Shandong, Chongqing and Hubei are the serious provinces The ratio of deficit provinces is only 3.72-5.43, accounting for 73.33% of the total pigs raised in China Only Heilongjiang Province, Gansu Province, Inner Mongolia Province and Shanghai Province can make profits from pigs At present, only a few provinces and regions are profitable In the second half of 2001, the price of corn and pig feed will continue to rise, the cost of pig raising will increase, and the profit will decrease The whole industry will be seriously threatened, and it is expected to lose money in the second half of 2001 Enterprises and specialized households should pay attention to market trends, predict fluctuations, adjust production and prevent greater losses Of course, it is also affected by policies, consumption and food prices Media propaganda should be based on market forecast to adjust agricultural structure and reduce corn planting The United States also adjusts its structure every year, but it uses many information technologies to forecast the market of 1600 kinds of agricultural products We believe that we should prevent "one wind" and develop "agricultural risk management" The reduction of corn production will be a disaster for the breeding industry "Adjusting the structure and developing animal husbandry" will fail 6 The location rule of pig price in the past six months China's commodity economy has not formed a national unified market The national law is not the same in all provinces and regions, and the actual price of pigs varies greatly In order to analyze the price difference between provinces and regions, we analyzed the prices of 30 provinces and regions In order to prevent short-term errors, we used 18 months' data and divided them into three stages: the half year, the first half year and the same period last year The high price area is more than 6.8 yuan per kilogram, and the low price area is less than 5.8 yuan The middle price range is between the two A year and a half of the price of fat pigs showed a downward trend, generally in the trough But the price difference between different regions is quite large Of course, an enterprise is to exploit its own market and seek profits by taking advantage of the regional difference of commodities Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the price difference and find out that the potential market is a part of the enterprise's decision-making 1 High price area: only Hainan, Fujian, Guangdong, Shanghai and Beijing have kept high prices for one and a half years, with an average of 7.268 yuan per kilogram There are few provinces and regions with high prices and little changes in China, mainly in South China and big cities These provinces and cities are also economically developed areas, and the market has relatively large capacity to bear It is estimated that in the second half of 2001, they will be able to maintain a high price of more than 6.8 yuan 2 Low price area: in one year, the number of low price areas has decreased from 16 provinces to 8, mainly distributed in southwest, northeast and North China's major production provinces These provinces have a large number of pigs and a large impact, and a considerable proportion of them are commodity export provinces Low price areas are Henan, Shandong, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Chongqing, Sichuan and Yunnan Their low price is conducive to commodity circulation But in the second half of the year, the production and storage of pigs will be affected Of course, in resource producing areas, feed prices are low Some of them are mainly raised in rural areas, with low costs Although the price of pigs is low, they can still be maintained We believe that we should control the productivity and reduce the stock Prices are expected to remain stagnant in the second half of 2001 3 Middle price area: most of the country belongs to the middle price area, and the price is maintained between 5.8 and 6.8 yuan It is distributed in Tianjin, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Gansu, Anhui, Hunan, Ningxia, Shanxi, Hebei, Hubei, Liaoning, Jilin and Guizhou in the northeast and central China The price of these provinces is moderate, which is related to low resource price, good production technology and high transformation efficiency 。 It seems that the situation of pig raising is mainly reflected in the price of pigs in these provinces We should be more vigilant in the second half of the year 7 The location rule of piglet price in the past half year: the price of piglets has risen steadily in the past year and a half, from an average of 7.567 yuan in the same period of last year to 8.930 yuan in the same period of last year The pig breeding enterprises have had a smooth ride Up to now, there is no awareness of the crisis Because the pig industry has been losing money for three months, as long as they do not compress their stocks, there will be overproduction of piglets, and the market price will start to fall Of course, the price difference of piglets in different locations is very large We set a high price area above 10 yuan and a low price area below 7 yuan The price difference of location is analyzed to provide information for breeding pig farm 1 High price area: due to the profit of pig raising in the previous stage, the high price of piglets in the past six months has been reduced by 1