Crude oil: weak shock, wait and see for the time being

In the past week, internal and external oil prices have reached new highs and ushered in the most violent volatility
in the past year.
Among them, the two oil in the outer disk once approached 140 US dollars / barrel, and the main force of SC exceeded 820 yuan / barrel, and then ushered in a correction
of more than 20% in just 2 trading days.
The monthly spread and Brent-WTI spread also rose and
retreated.
We believe that oil prices may remain weak and volatile in the coming week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, and volatility continues to converge, and it is expected to stabilize and rise
again in late March or early April.
From the supply and demand side, the impact of Russia's supply gap on the global crude oil market has increased in the past week
.
Black shipping capacity is still lacking, and many types of commodities, including crude oil, have fluctuated
sharply.
Considering that NATO's sanctions against Russia are unlikely to be lifted for the time being, over time, theoretically the global impact of the disruption of Russian crude oil supply will be more intense, and the support brought by the supply-side gap to oil prices will also be amplified
.
Therefore, as long as the Black Sea shipping ecology cannot be restored (there is a certain possibility of falsification, refer to Iran's crude oil exports during sanctions), the short-term strong supply side support of the crude oil market will not end
.
In terms of Iran, after causing sharp fluctuations in oil prices and greatly digesting marginal bearishness, the impact of this geopolitical issue on oil prices in the past week has faded, and the market has turned pessimistic
about the rapid recovery of Iranian crude oil again.
Considering that even the immediate recovery of Iranian crude oil supply cannot fill the gap in Russian crude oil supply, the Iranian issue may be gradually marginalized, and the impact on the crude oil market in the future is relatively small
.
OPEC, while enjoying the high profits brought by soaring oil prices, still maintained a cautious willingness to
increase production.
Even the United Arab Emirates, which has the strongest willingness to increase production, has maintained a relatively restrained pace
of increasing production.
At present, the market is very different about how much spare capacity there are in OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, which is also a factor
that is very likely to have a difference in expectations on the supply side in the future.
At least at the current stage of the OPEC+ production cut agreement, it is unlikely
that the above countries will break the limit on the increase in production granted by OPEC.
Therefore, although oil prices temporarily or face a weak shock pattern after rising and retreating in the past week from the perspective of capital game factors, considering that the marginal suppression of demand side by the rapid rise of commodities will take some time to reflect, we believe that the above-mentioned gap on the supply side will continue to support oil prices in the short term, and it is too early to judge the downward trend of oil prices, and there is still more uncertainty
.

It should be noted that the recent upward trend of the dollar index is too fast, and the major commodities denominated in US dollars are driven
by downward revision of pricing.
Coupled with the rise and fall of the non-ferrous metal system dominated by global nickel prices in the past week, the short-term market sentiment has cooled, and the frequency and magnitude of the phased pullback may also exceed market expectations
.
It's just that when the supply-side gap is determined and the commodity price is not running for a long time, once this situation occurs, it will provide a better buying point
for commodities, including crude oil.