Crude oil: Macro and Chinese demand are both positive, crude oil or volatility is strong

News: This week (November 7-November 11) oil prices first fell and then rose, the beginning of the week fell due to market concerns about the demand outlook, Friday (November 11) oil prices rose sharply mainly because the market believes that US inflation may have peaked, and the news of the marginal relaxation of China's epidemic prevention policy is positive for gasoline and jet fuel demand
.

Fundamentals: On the supply side, OPEC production cut in November, Russian oil will face sanctions such as embargo and price limit in December, the United States increased production by 200,000 barrels per day last week, focusing on changes in US production, if production continues to increase, it will be negative for oil prices; Focus on OPEC+ actual production
in the fourth quarter.
Demand side: U.
S.
refined oil demand has picked up recently, and China's epidemic prevention policies have been loosened marginally, offsetting some recession fears
.
However, it should be noted that at the beginning of China's epidemic prevention relaxation, it may cause a surge in the number of infections, which may cause "self-control", so it is not conducive to oil demand in recent months, but in the medium and long term, demand may increase significantly next year, especially in the second half of the year
.

Summary: Oil prices are currently trading more on the demand side, and there has been a very positive recently, if the Fed slows down its interest rate hike and China's epidemic prevention measures continue to ease, demand will be better than expected, especially in the second and third quarters of next year, demand will be more certain
.
Next, pay attention to the following three news, the effect of EU sanctions against Russia in early December, whether the OPEC+ meeting will continue to reduce production, and the Fed interest rate meeting
in December.

In the medium term, next year's Chinese demand is expected to become more prosperous and stable, international aviation is expected to be liberalized, the 23-year H2 overseas interest rate hike cycle is expected to end, OPEC+ continues to limit production and raise prices, next year, especially in the second half of the year supply and demand is likely to be tight, so crude oil is still worth as a long allocation
.

Risk points: OPEC+ production is higher than expected, the domestic epidemic has caused residents to self-lockdown, and European and American interest rate hikes have exceeded expectations
.