Cross century outlook of world feed industry (6.5)

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Nanjing University of Economics (210003) compiled by Zhu Xing MQM According to the prediction made by the American feed Commission on the world feed demand, in the 10 years from 1993 to 2003, the world feed production will be slightly faster than the production due to the influence of the market, the world feed consumption will increase in the next century, the feed trade will gradually expand, and the prospect is optimistic In the 1990s, the world feed industry was more dependent on feed trade, with a slow and steady growth rate The main importing countries, which accounted for 78% of the world feed trade, imported feed increased by 1.7% every year During this period (1993-2003), the total trade volume of contracted feed will increase by 20%, that is, from 87 million tons in 1992 / 1993 to 105.5 million tons in 2002 / 2003 Feed consumption in 2002 / 2003 will be 13.1% higher than that in 1992 / 1993, while feed production will increase by 10.4% in the same period Mqm1 feed importing countries look forward to MQM world feed import mainly from Japan, Russia, Mexico and South Korea In the next few years, the demand for feed import from these countries will increase in different degrees except Russia, especially for corn MQM Japan, as the largest importer of feed in the world, imports about 20.9 million tons of feed in 1993 / 1994, which will be reduced to 20.8 million tons in 2002 / 2003 In the next few years, Japan's economy will recover from stagnation, which will promote the demand for meat and livestock products Meanwhile, industrial products made of corn, such as ethanol, starch and biodegradable plastics, have considerable development potential in Japan If this potential is applied, Japan's feed imports could increase unexpectedly MQM Russia's feed imports in 2002 / 03 are estimated at 3.9 million tons, a 50% decrease from 1993 / 1994 Russia's current economic difficulties are likely to ease in the next few years, but due to its weak consumer demand and low interest rates, the total stock of its cattle and cows has been declining There will be an increase in poultry and pork production in Russia, which will lead to an increase in feed demand, but it will fill this increase by expanding domestic feed production Based on its economic growth, agricultural product price subsidy policy and NAFTA, MQM Mexico's feed import volume will increase dramatically during this period It is expected that the total import volume will increase by 136%, and reach 10.4 million tons in 2002 / 2003, becoming the second largest feed import country in the world In 1993 / 1994, the imports of corn and sorghum were 146000 tons and 4.2 million tons respectively It is expected that the above figures will be 6 million tons and 4.4 million tons respectively by 2002 / 2003 In the past, the government of Mexico implemented a high price subsidy policy for corn, which promoted the rapid development of corn production and minimized the demand for corn import Recently, the Mexican government introduced a new price subsidy policy to protect farmers' income, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in corn planting area NAFTA will also affect its corn imports, which are expected to increase as Mexico's import tax is phased out In the past 10 years, due to the rapid economic growth and the improvement of living standards, MQM South Korea has promoted the rapid growth of its demand for livestock, poultry and dairy products, which has resulted in the rapid growth of feed demand Since 1981, South Korea's corn import has increased by more than 130%, reaching 6.5 million tons in 1993 This trend is expected to continue into 2003, and it is expected that in the next few years, South Korea's corn import will increase by 35% and reach 8.8 million tons by 2002 / 2003 The main exporting countries and regions of MQM feed in the world are China, European Union, Eastern Europe, Argentina, Canada and the United States In the next few years, the export volume of feed in these countries and regions will decrease to some extent, while the Eastern Europe will change from a net import area to an export area MQM China's feed demand will increase substantially because people have improved the food structure and the growing demand for livestock, poultry and milk products A considerable part of domestic feed production enterprises will meet this demand, which will lead to the gradual reduction of China's feed export China's feed export volume is expected to be 260000 tons in 2002 / 03, compared with 11.4 million tons in 1993 / 1994 MQM EU has been a net feed export area since 1986 / 1987 Its barley exports exceed corn imports This situation will continue to the next few years, but its net exports will also be decreasing At the same time, the barley export will fluctuate every year In 2000, the barley export is estimated to be 3.45 million tons, while in 1993 / 1994, the barley export is 4.6 million tons MQM EU has been a net feed export area since 1986 / 1987 Its barley exports exceed corn imports This situation will continue to the next few years, but its net exports will also be decreasing At the same time, the barley export will fluctuate every year In 2000, the barley export is estimated to be 3.45 million tons, while in 1993 / 1994, the barley export is 4.6 million tons MQm
In recent years, Eastern Europe has undergone dramatic economic restructuring and agricultural adjustment In the later years of 1990s, the economic development of some countries in Eastern Europe is unbalanced As a whole, the economy of the region will grow slowly During the four years from 1990 to 1993, the production of beef, pork and chicken decreased by 22%, 14% and 20%, resulting in feed consumption The cost decreased by 28% and the import of feed decreased by 23% It is estimated that 4.4 million tons of feed will be exported to this area in 2002 / 2003, while in 1993 / 1994 this area was a net import area of 1.4 million tons of imported feed MQM, Canada and the United States will further expand their feed exports in the next few years From 1992 / 1993 to 2002 / 2003, Argentina's corn exports will increase by 51%, Canada's barley exports will increase by 66%, and the total exports of corn, sorghum, barley and oats from the United States will increase by 19% Us feed exports will reach 59.5 million tons in 2002 / 2003, which will increase from 57% to 59% of the world feed market MQM 3 world feed industry outlook MQM In October 1999, the European Agricultural Association and SOX publishing company jointly held a conference on "the impact and opportunities of the international feed market" in Brussels The conference held that the feed industry is facing more stringent regulations and more stringent control in the future, because governments all over the world are trying to fight against BSE, Salmonella, dioxin, illegal use of livestock and poultry waste, and animal feed However, genetically modified crops are expected to be further promoted in some regions of the world, where feed consumption of pigs, poultry and fish will increase substantially MQM is in favor of developing genetically modified crops in the United States In the past, the development policy of genetically modified crops in the United States was not clear, so it affected the farmers' planting decision-making and caused huge losses to farmers For example, in 1998, due to the reduction of agricultural exports, American farmers lost 200 million US dollars, and suffered the same fate in 1999 To this end, the United States is now looking for ways to allow the production of genetically modified crops to promote the development of the feed industry For example, the United States is accelerating the pace of research on the impact of biotechnology products on human health and the environment, the U.S Department of agriculture will use its regional center to conduct long-term assessment of biotechnology products, the National Academy of Sciences will review the current regulations of the U.S Department of agriculture on the cultivation of Biotechnology crops, etc MQM EU opposes the development of genetically modified crops European food processing enterprises try to stop using genetically modified corn to make food and are considering stopping the production of genetically modified animal feed These trends may cause a complete disruption of the world food market The EU will purchase non GM soybeans from Brazil and other countries, while other countries will purchase GM products from the United States, Argentina and other countries that produce GM agricultural products The main reason why the EU opposes genetically modified crops is that the world wheat trade volume will increase substantially in the next five years, reaching 114 million tons, and the coarse grain trade volume will increase to 111 million tons Although the demand for feed grain increases, the grain production can also meet the demand without using genetically modified products The main economic growth point of animal feed industry will be the joint farm of pig, poultry and fish, which will shift the focus of feed production from bulk feed to premixed feed and refined feed MQM world feed industry is in a fierce market competition One side of the competition is a small number of large-scale feed raw material suppliers, while the other side is a small number of large-scale buyers who have connections with processors and retailers and can affect the limit quota and quality requirements Therefore, the world feed industry's choice for the future is to implement business combination to enhance market competitiveness; to enhance market penetration or increase regional coverage; and to increase the development investment of feed products MQM no matter how the world feed industry develops, the demand for feed in Latin America, China, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and other countries and regions will increase substantially In the next five years, it is expected that poultry production in China will increase by nearly 8%, in Mexico by 6%, and in Brazil by 4% Pork production is expected to grow by 3% in China, 7% in Brazil and 6% in the Philippines China feed industry information network MQM (author:)