CoVID-19's fatality rate may be higher than we thought!

MAY 15, 2020 /
PRNEWSWIRE
BIOON/- A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF DAILY DEATHS IN ITALY SINCE JANUARY 2020 AND THE PAST FIVE YEARS SHOWS THAT THE MORTALITY RATE FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS IN ITALY IS AT LEAST 0.8 PERCENT, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL FLU AND SOME RECENT ESTIMATESBased on Italian data, data scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimate that the fatality rate in New York City and Santa Clara County, California, is no less than 0.5 percent, or one in every 200 infected peoplethese findings contrast with a study published online last week by Stanford University epidemiologists, who found the death rate between 0.1% and 0.2%This week, a team from the University of Southern California (USC) reported a similar death rate to Los Angeles"their final figure is much lower than we estimate," said Uros Seljak, senior author of the study, a professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a scientist at the Berkeley Laboratory and a member of the Berkeley Institute for Data ScienceHe is also co-director of the Berkeley Center for Cosmic Physics (BCCP)picture source: Photocourtesyof Policlinico Gemelli
Seljak says contracting COVID-19 this year doubles the chance of death"If you want to know the chances of dying from COVID-19 after contracting the new coronavirus, we observed that a very simple answer seems to fit the data: it's the same as the probability of you dying from normal causes in the next 12 months."he added that the current uncertainty could reduce that figure to 10 months or up to 20 monthsHis team found that this simple relationship applies not only to overall mortality, but also to age-layered mortality, which is consistent with data from Italy and the United States"Our observations suggest that COVID-19 killed the weakest part of the population," Seljak saidThe paper was recently published on the MedRxiv website and submitted to a journal prior to peer reviewthe death toll in Italy is double the official figure
Seljak and his colleagues' research predicts that the real death toll of COVID-19 in Italy is more than double the official figure: as of April 18, about 50,000 people had died from COVID-19The country's official statistics list more than 150,000 confirmed cases and more than 20,000 deaths as of the day researchers say the discrepancy may be due to the fact that many older people's deaths are not counted in Italy's official statistics The team found that the fatality rate was much higher among people over 70: in the Lombardy region, severely affected by the influenza pandemic, the fatality rate was 2.3 per cent for people aged 70 to 79, while the fatality rate among people aged 80 to 89 was close to 6 per cent Nearly 13 per cent of people over the age of 90 die By contrast, the mortality rate for people aged 40 to 49 is only 0.04 per cent these different deaths could explain the higher number of deaths among young people in New York City Since the population there is younger than Italy, more deaths are expected among young people, although the death rate is low The researchers predict that about 26 percent of all people in New York City who die from COVID-19 are under 65 On the other hand, Italy has an older population, with a higher overall mortality rate of 0.8 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in New York Only 10% of deaths in Italy are under the age of 65 the team also estimated that about a quarter of the new City population was infected with the virus, based on the expected fatality rate of new coronavirus infections in New York and the positive rate tested for COVID-19 That's in line with new York Gov Andrew Cuomo's recently announced 21 percent of infections Based on current mortality rates, the team predicted that Santa Clara's infection rate would be about 1 percent, compared with about 2 percent in Los Angeles given the known infection and fatality rates on the Diamond Princess, the team also calculated the upper limit of the death rate: about twice the lower limit (1 percent) of new York City and Santa Clara counties uncertainty increases due to a lack of diagnostic tests
uncertainty about the fatality of the new virus, known as SARS-CoV-2, due to a lack of testing tools and testing laboratories This leaves public health officials unaware of the true rate of infection among the general population, which is necessary to calculate the percentage of deaths among infected people Stanford University's study estimated the infection rate in Santa Clara County at between 2.5 and 4.2 percent, while the University of Southern California study estimated the infection rate in Los Angeles at between 2.8 and 5.6 percent Both figures are much higher than previous estimates, which means that the confirmed number of COVID-19-positive deaths has dropped to a low of 0.2% compared to those infected based on these studies , some authors at Stanford University argue that COVID-19 is no more severe than seasonal flu, raising doubts about the decision to seek refuge in place and close many businesses "Of course, it (the fatality rate of infection) is important for policy decision-making," Seljak said "Is this just a serious case of influenza, or is it, as they claim?" to answer this question, Seljak and his colleagues unearthed a previously untapped source of data: the daily mortality rate in 1,688 towns between January 1, 2015 and April 4, 2020 provided by the Italian Statistical Office Between January and April this year, it was probably due to the additional deaths of COVID-19, which can be used to calculate the lower limit of viral mortality "the data set is a treasure trove of STATISTICAL analysis of COVID-19 mortality," Seljak said "For example, it gives a better indication of mortality as a function of age than any other data, which is a tragic consequence of tens of thousands of deaths in Italy from COVID-19 Based on these data, we determine that if a person is infected with the virus and is over 90 years of age, the probability of his death is at least 10%, because this is the proportion of the entire population of Bergamo province who dies at this age group By contrast, the corresponding figure for 40- to 49-year-olds is 0.04 per cent, far less than previous estimates "
, for example, in Italy's Lombardy region, is a viral hotspot, the hardest hit province of Bergamo: the spread of infection to many people - if not the entire population, or two-thirds of the population - which may be called group immunity That means enough people are immune, at least temporarily, to stop the virus from spreading among uninfected people, Seljak said In fact, if everyone in Bergamo is infected, it's easy to calculate the lowest possible infection fatality rate of 0.56 percent, based on known deaths since January -- estimated to be more than 6,000 out of a population of 1 million image source: Imagecourtesyof Sky News
in Lombardy, researchers estimate the lowest fatality rate even higher: about 0.84 percent They also estimate that as of 18 April, 23 per cent of Lombardy's population had been infected, an average of 35 times the number of positive tests in the province the study team analysed all towns and all age groups in Italy that reported daily death data, using a counterfactual analysis: based on the data from the previous five years, the expected number of daily deaths between January and April 2020 was estimated and compared with the reported deaths The extra deaths are believed to have been caused by COVID-19 in almost all towns, the number of deaths in early 2020 exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll the researchers stressed that the team's figures are low because the number of deaths in many Italian towns is not entirely up-to-date "Some of my colleagues think we're too conservative, which may be true, " Seljak said "We've just counted the number of deaths to date, but there are still people who are dying (biovalleybioon.com) References: StudychallengesreportssofsoflowrateforCOVID-19
TotalCOVID-19 Mortality Italy: Excess Mortality and Age Rolls-Times-Series Analysis