Corn prices will rise steadily in the near future

Introduction: combined with the current basic situation of the domestic corn market, it is expected that the domestic corn price will rise steadily in the short term, and the market situation will change before the new grain is listed In the near future, the domestic corn price continues to maintain a stable state, but there is a downward trend in the stability In the first ten days of August, the highest transaction price of Jilin corn is 1090 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 1070 yuan / ton, and the average price is 1080 yuan / ton, which is nearly 10-20 yuan / ton lower than the previous period The average quotation of vehicle plate in Heilongjiang is 1060 yuan / ton, that of Liaoning is 1150 yuan / ton, that of Fujian and Zhejiang is 1280-1300 yuan / ton, and that of Huangpu port is 1260 yuan / ton The quotation is lower than that in late July, which is mainly affected by the drop of flat price of corn in the port of production and marketing area In June and July, the rainfall in the Northeast continued to increase, the drought lasted for several months was alleviated, the growth of corn improved, and people's expectations for corn production increased From the perspective of the post trend corn market situation, the factors restraining the price rise of corn are gradually becoming stronger The main factors that affect the price trend of corn in the later stage are as follows: 1 Although the recent rainfall has alleviated the drought in the earlier stage, it is inevitable that the summer grain production will be reduced this year According to the report of the National Bureau of statistics, the total output of summer grain this year was 101.88 million tons, 4.91 million tons less than the previous year, a decrease of 4.6%, providing an opportunity for the overall recovery of grain market prices 2 This year, animal husbandry and fishery will maintain a stable development trend, and corn consumption will maintain a good growth trend 3 The demand of feed industry is increasing The second half of the year is the peak season of feed industry production, especially after the export of eggs has been basically solved, it will greatly stimulate the consumption of corn in feed industry 4 As far as the whole country is concerned, the contradiction between supply and demand will continue to ease in the future As far as the sales area is concerned, the pattern of self balancing in the past will be broken, resulting in active purchase and sales between production and sales areas and fierce price competition 5 The state has sold a large number of aged grain, and the regulation of domestic corn market is unclear At present, the grain inventory is still at a high level in history, and the quantity of aged grain is still outstanding Therefore, this year, the country will still mainly sell aged grain, and its price is relatively low The main reason is that the selling price of old grain is composed of the market purchase price at that time and a series of expenses such as drying, drying, warehousing, etc., while the current price has not reached the level of its down price sales Moreover, the regulation is not clear, which provides space for the price rise of corn in the later period 6 In the previous stage, because the price of corn is much higher than that of wheat, many feed enterprises use wheat instead of corn as raw materials In the near future, due to the continuous rise of wheat price after the opening of the scale, the availability of low-priced wheat in the market has decreased dramatically Many feed enterprises are considering increasing the use of corn, which will also be an important factor in promoting the price of corn 7 From the perspective of consumption, although in the process of price stabilization and slight decline, the willingness of grain consuming units such as feed enterprises to hold money and wait-and-see is strengthened, but the purchasing activity has not stopped With the decline of their inventory level, the next round of large-scale purchasing will inevitably lead to the price rise 8 Reluctant to sell will not decrease In the absence of obvious macro-control, the mentality of reluctant to sell will not decline in the short term In conclusion, it is expected that domestic corn prices will rise in the short term, but the increase will not be obvious The policy pressure on the market can't be ignored, so the author thinks that the price of corn will rise slightly in the short term.