Corn prices are still likely to pick up in the future

Introduction: in recent years, China's corn price has fallen rapidly, lasted for a long time, and almost no rebound The reasons are as follows: 1 The pressure of entering WTO; 2 The expectation of corn production slightly increases, while the potential supply increase brought by entering WTO increases people's psychological expectation for the possible increase of future supply; 3 The negative effect of CBOT corn price decline caused by the listing of domestic autumn grain and the listing of American autumn grain, which makes the corn price in domestic market subject to double seasonal pressure, and the price drop is inevitable; 4 The northern region The climate conditions were better than that in 2000, which increased the supply of new grain and accelerated the listing speed of new grain; 5 The recent export lag and the cancellation of one million ton contract also had a great impact on the market Although the current corn market price has been falling all the way, so far it has not stabilized, but the future price trend should not be too pessimistic BXB first of all, the Spring Festival is approaching, which will drive the demand of the breeding industry, and then stimulate feed consumption BXB second, in the near future, a large number of corn in the Central Plains is used in the southern sales area, and the export volume of corn in the Central Plains is large, which will speed up the consumption of corn in the Central Plains At the same time, the processing industry in the Central Plains is developed, and the local consumption is relatively large It is expected that the large supply of corn to the southern sales area will be basically terminated from February to March, so as to increase the use of corn in the northeast BXB third, at present, China's corn export progress is slow, but it has not stopped Our government will continue to explore the Southeast Asian market and maintain its market share BXB fourth, at present, China's specific measures such as the number and mode of import quota distribution have not been worked out Imported corn will not arrive in China in February and March 2002, and dealers will be cautious in the first year of WTO entry, and will not rush to import under the condition of low domestic price and loose supply In 2002, China's trade quota was 3.978 million tons, and the individual trade volume was 1.872 million tons The country can control the import volume and adjust the market price by controlling the national trade volume Relatively speaking, individual trade volume import is more likely to be completed If the import quota is issued in March, it will take the end of may at the earliest to have the arrival of imported corn, and it is impossible to have a large number of centralized arrival However, at present, many feed enterprises rely too much on imports to reduce their stocks to the lowest point Once the imports are not timely, or the price is unreasonable, there may be phase shortage BXB fifth, the purchase price of corn in Central China will not fall too low If the price is too low, it will affect the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain, and will play a role in stopping the price drop BXB sixth, the purchase price of northeast corn is higher Since there is no price difference and capital problem between purchase and sales this year, the enterprises engaged in grain management have not started to purchase a large number of grain, but the reserve and processing enterprises are purchasing, so the price is difficult to fall at present BXB through the above analysis, the author believes that the corn price trend in the first half of 2002 is still likely to pick up in stages, and it is expected that the corn price in the sales area may fluctuate between 1100-1250 yuan / ton BXB (author:) to feed Weibo to: