Corn prices are likely to hit bottom

Introduction: after several consecutive weeks of rapid decline, the domestic corn market price has slowed down significantly in the near future, with some local corn prices showing signs of stabilizing, but the market transaction in the northeast corn main production area is still light, still in a state of market or not Compared with last week, the sales price of domestic corn price production and marketing areas has not changed much Except for some local prices falling slightly, the price is basically stable The average price of Jilin car plate in the main production area is 960 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 900 yuan / ton, that of Heilongjiang is 950 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 1000 yuan / ton, that of Shandong is 1000 yuan / ton; that of Shanghai is 1000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang is 1020-1040 yuan / ton, and that of lake is 1000 yuan / ton South 1100 yuan / ton, Sichuan 1120 yuan / ton; port corn Dalian flat price 1000 yuan / ton, Qinhuangdao 990 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Huangpu port price 1120 yuan / ton, Fuzhou 1100 yuan / ton From the point of view of the acquisition link, the price of corn acquisition has also been stabilizing in the near future after the previous flat opening low The price of corn acquisition in Jilin is 0.40-0.42 yuan / Jin in the areas along the line, 0.38 yuan / Jin in the areas not along the line with poor quality, 2 cents / Jin lower in Heilongjiang than in Jilin, Henan, Hebei, Shandong and other places In general, the price is maintained at 0.42-0.44 yuan / Jin In recent years, the stabilization of domestic corn price is mainly affected by the following factors: first, some bad factors in the early stage have been digested and sorted out for a long time, and now they are basically recognized by the market, the news is calm, and the corn price tends to be stable Second, affected by the snowfall in North China in the past few days, the transportation of corn is limited Third, the demand of feed enterprises increased before the festival, which increased the purchase of corn Fourth, farmers are reluctant to sell corn because of the continuous decline of corn price In recent years, the continuous decline of corn price is largely due to the fact that after China's entry into the customs, it is generally believed that American corn will inevitably enter China's market, and at the same time, China's corn export will lose its competitive advantage, bringing pressure to the domestic corn supply It is this psychological expectation that leads to the continuous decline of market price We need to have a correct analysis on the corn import after entering WTO In terms of price, the FOB price of corn in the U.S Gulf of Mexico in January 2002 was US $96, the CIF price of corn arriving at the southern port of China was US $115, and the price after duty paid (1% tariff, 13% income tax) was US $131 In addition to other expenses such as port transit, the price was about RMB 1150 / ton After nearly half a year's continuous decline in the price of domestic corn, the gap between domestic and international prices is not large Based on the current corn price of Guangdong Province of 1120 yuan / ton, domestic corn is still slightly dominant, and there is a potential demand market for corn imports Therefore, it is not very realistic to say that a large number of corn from the United States will flow in after China's accession to the WTO The main channel of corn consumption and supply after China's accession to the WTO Still based on the domestic market, the import of corn just plays a mediating role, and the NPC doesn't have to panic It is only wishful thinking of the big grain consumers who want to buy cheap goods after entering WTO With the decrease of China's corn export, the United States has one less export competitor, and the corn price in the international market is likely to rise In the early stage, China cancelled the export contract of 1 million tons of corn, which led to the sharp rise of Chicago corn futures price is a good example Based on the comprehensive analysis of the current domestic and international corn market situation, we believe that there is little room for the domestic corn price to fall again, and it is in the bottom brewing stage The bottom of corn price may come quietly in a bearish atmosphere in the market.