Copper stocks rebounded significantly after the holiday, and the main force of Shanghai copper rushed back down

On Monday, the LME copper shock fell to the upside, as of 15:05 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $5800 / ton, down 0.
05%
on the day.
The main 1912 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back down, with the highest 47210 yuan / ton, the lowest 46920 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 46970 yuan / ton, up 0.
13% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 154,200 lots, an increase of 17,078 lots per day, and the position was 224,000 lots, an increase of 12,242 lots
per day.
The basis was reduced to 110 yuan/ton; The price spread of Shanghai copper in 1911-1912 remained at -40 yuan / ton
.

Market focus: U.
S.
President Donald Trump said on October 11 that he believes the U.
S.
and China are "very close" to ending the trade war and that the agreement they will reach is good
for both countries and the world.
The union of the Chilean copper mine owned by Canadian miner Tektronix Resources will strike on the 14th, which will lead to the suspension of the mine's production, which will produce about 15,000 metal tons
of copper for the quarter ending June 30.
China imported 1.
581 million tons of copper ore and its concentrate in September, and the total import volume from January to September was 16.
003 million tons, an increase of 6.
8%
year-on-year.
(4) China's automobile sales in September were 2.
27 million units, down 5.
2% y/y.
New energy vehicle sales in September were 80,000 units, down 34.
2%
y/y.

Spot analysis: On October 14, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 47040-47120 yuan / ton, with an average price of 47080 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan / ton
.
The quotation of the morning market holder can not be recognized by the market, so the spot premium shows a rapid downward trend, approaching the delivery date, the pressure of the source of goods is difficult to exchange for cash, the willingness of the holder to realize is further strengthened, and the premium tends to the delivery level
.
Downstream generally shows stopover
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 61,728 tons, an increase of 3,585 tons per day; On 11 October, LME copper stocks were 282325 tonnes, down 3,275 tonnes
per day.
In the week ended October 11, the stock of copper cathode on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 134509 tons, an increase of 17,054 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 1912 contract are 67776 lots, an increase of 2330 lots per day, short positions are 84547 lots, a daily increase of 2735 lots, net short positions are 16771 lots, a daily increase of 405 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

On October 14, the main force of Shanghai copper 1912 rushed back down
.
Sino-US trade negotiations have made phased progress, market confidence has improved, while upstream copper mine supply disturbance has restarted, some mining areas have striked and stopped production, coupled with the current copper mine processing fee TC continues to be low, showing that copper mine supply is tight, which is good for copper prices, but the current downstream demand performance is not good, copper stocks have rebounded significantly after the holiday, so that copper prices are still
weak.
In terms of spot, the quotation of the morning market holders can not be recognized by the market, so the spot premium shows a rapid downward trend, close to the delivery date, the source of goods is difficult to exchange for cash pressure, the willingness of the holder to realize is further strengthened, and the downstream generally shows stoppage
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper main 1912 contract is long and the upper shadow, and the daily MACD green column shrinks, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.