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On Monday, the Shanghai copper main 1805 contract opened at 52450 yuan / ton, the beginning of the session copper price is still struggling around the daily average of 52347 yuan / ton, but then the bears concentrated into the market to suppress, copper price center of gravity downward, the overall around 52290 yuan / ton shock operation, the afternoon period of bears another wave of increased positions to enter, dragging the copper price center of gravity to the next step, low to 52040 yuan / ton, 52000 yuan / ton integer off support again, then copper prices slightly revised upward, and finally closed at 52120 yuan / ton, down 330 yuan / ton
。 During the day, bears increased their positions in large quantities, and Shanghai copper ran weakly, but there was some support around 52,000 yuan / ton, and it is expected that Shanghai copper will continue to fall with limited
space.
In the market, domestic spot copper continued to decline, Yangtze River Nonferrous Network 1# copper price was 51770 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan, copper discount 130-discount 70; Guangdong spot 1# copper price was 51760 yuan / ton, down 230 yuan; Yangtze River spot 1# copper price was 51770 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan; Copper subsidy 120 - subsidy 100; Shanghai spot 1# copper price was 51765 yuan / ton, down 160 yuan
.
In terms of inventory, the inventory in the previous period increased by more than 40,000 tons
.
As the profit window for imported copper opened in early March, it is expected that there will be an influx of imported copper in the future, and domestic inventories still have room
to rise.
But gradually enter the delivery cycle, the current next month price difference is still about 200 yuan / ton, the market for the subsequent spot discount narrowing still has expectations and willingness, but because the current major traders inventory is not low, capital pressure is large, cash is still urgent, so next week the market is facing the game between supply and demand and the contradiction between capital and delivery, pay close attention, the price difference will not narrow a lot
.
In terms of copper scrap, the decline in scrap copper imports this year has become an inevitable trend, so the domestic scrap copper market is still tight
.
If copper prices cannot rebound strongly in March, then some traders will inevitably be difficult to get rid of the high-priced scrap that they hoarded years ago, which will significantly aggravate the tight supply situation in the scrap copper market, and then it will be difficult to see a significant improvement in market transactions
.
Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to the impact
of the two sessions and policy factors on copper prices in March.
In terms of news, the market is currently worried about further trade wars triggered by the proposed taxation of copper and aluminum imports by the United States, coupled with the prudent progress of the draft property tax mentioned by the two sessions this year, domestic commodities have pulled back to hedge
.
In the short term, the downstream of the spot market has not yet recovered, and the inventory in the previous period has increased, and the copper market is still facing certain downside risks
.
From the perspective of futures, Shanghai copper main MACD dead cross, KDJ dead cross, the price is below a number of moving averages, short-term trend is bearish, falling below the support of 52,000 yuan will continue to seek support
downward.