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Today's Shanghai copper showed a slight V-shaped trend, and the afternoon rushed back down to stabilize, closing the Shanghai copper main 2102 contract at 59280, up 160, or 0.
27%.
In terms of macro, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy is still more likely to continue in the future, and this is a very favorable factor for commodities, the current dollar is higher in the short term, but this is more affected by the Eurozone epidemic rebound, and in terms of monetary policy, the Fed does not have the conditions to immediately change the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar rally may not be sustainable
.
In terms of fundamentals, the previously negotiated TC/RC benchmark price in 2021 was lowered for the sixth consecutive time, indicating that the market still has some concerns
about the future supply pattern.
And because major producing countries such as Chile were affected by the epidemic in the third quarter, there is still great uncertainty, which is a more obvious supply-side disruption
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Prior to this, State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 460 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the year, the actual investment amount of the power grid is far from reaching the standard, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work after that.
In addition, in the new energy vehicle sector, there is also a certain support for the demand for copper prices
.
Overall, the easing policy environment and outlook expectations put pressure on the US dollar index, copper prices maintained high volatility, but short-term good news digestion coupled with overseas epidemic repeated, copper prices will have a pullback performance, the recent range after sorting out there is still upward, it is expected that Shanghai copper rushed back down overnight, pay attention to the 58,800 support level, operate the fast forward and fast out, downstream appropriate stocking
.
