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Yesterday's Shanghai copper rally is difficult to continue, continued to weaken during the day, CU2002 closed at 49070 yuan / ton, up 0.
37%.
In the evening, Shanghai copper fluctuated, and the latest closing price of the main month 2002 contract was 49110 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan, or 0.
02%.
In terms of spot, quotations continued to be revised down to seek transactions, but transactions remained average, and downstream receiving was cautious
.
The fundamentals have not changed much, the mine end continues to be tight, TC remains unchanged this week, the 2020 long single TC signed last month has a sharp decline from last year, only 62 US dollars / ton, the main reason is that the riots at the mine end and the smelting capacity launch, domestic and foreign inventories have fallen sharply, this week the bonded zone inventory fell slightly, imports maintained losses, Yangshan copper premium unchanged, imports decreased, scrap copper supply continued to be tight, power grid investment is still expected but the possibility of failure increases
.
Macro-wise, the early macro favorable basic digestion, the Eurozone December manufacturing PMI was less than expected, copper prices are difficult to continue, and the night trading continues to pullback
.
Operationally, wait for the price to pull back and then add more
.
Industry News:
1, Zambia Daily Mail news
on December 12.
The chairman of the Zambia Chamber of Mining (ZCM) said that so far, the mining sector has produced a total of 667,173 tons of copper ore this year, down
from 741,560 tons in the previous year.
In 2019, it was originally planned to produce 830,000-860,000 tons, but in May this year, the plan was revised to 760,000 tons
.
He said that mining companies are struggling to operate under high cost conditions due to high taxes, unconventional mining tax (MRT) algorithms and unrefunded VAT, and the inconsistency of mining taxes in 2019 has led to production cuts and negative investment sentiment
.
2.
According to the BNAmerica website, Chilean mining companies have a total exploration budget of $654 million
in 2019.
According to the latest communiqué from the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), the 2019 exploration budget increased by US$77 million, or 13%,
compared with 2018.
Gold accounted for 57% of the budget, with 300 holes planned to be deployed, with copper and silver accounting for 38% and 3%
respectively.
In 2019, about 23 new companies decided to explore
in Chile.
Cochilco listed 108 companies with exploration projects in Chile, of which 79 were junior exploration companies, 15 were medium-sized companies, 3 were Chilean (national mining companies, Enami) or foreign national companies and 11 were other types
.
Thirty-nine of these companies carried out field work
.
There are no new disturbances in the copper market this week, and the market sentiment is still positive, but the positive is basically reflected in the price, and Shanghai copper continues to have insufficient upward momentum
.
From a fundamental point of view, domestic social inventories declined, bonded zone inventories rebounded slightly, overseas LME inventories continued to fall, and global explicit inventories continued to decline, supporting copper prices
.
Domestic smelting capacity is currently stable, but under the low profit cycle, the potential risk of smelter production and operation is high, and the subsequent continuous attention to changes
in operating capacity is high.
We believe that the short-term copper price continues to have limited upward space, and it is recommended to take profit at the high, and the option bull spread strategy can continue to be held
.