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In the third quarter, copper prices maintained an oscillating trend, London copper continued to operate in the range of 9000-9700 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper oscillated in the range of 66000-72000 yuan / ton, Shanghai copper trend is stronger than London copper
.
The macro and fundamentals in the third quarter are basically consistent with market cognition, copper prices wait for the direction to choose, and copper prices in the fourth quarter may come out of the first rise and then suppress the market
.
On the macro front, the market's worries about the shift in monetary policy in Europe and the United States have significantly decreased, and with the release of the minutes of the monthly monetary policy meetings in Europe and the United States, the market no longer equates narrowing with interest rate hikes, while the impact of the global epidemic on the economy and the market is also continuing to fade, and the impact of the macro market on copper prices has shown signs of
weakening.
On the supply side, the instability of overseas mine operations increased in the third quarter, and many mines in South America held wage negotiations in August, but due to the short duration of the mine strike and the successive wage agreements reached in the copper mines involved in the strike in early September, it did not have a significant impact
on copper prices.
In terms of smelting, in the fourth quarter, there will be a total of 1.
73 million tons of smelting capacity of smelters such as Jiangxi Copper, China Copper Southeast Copper and Heilongjiang Zijin Copper Industry with an overhaul plan, which is estimated to affect the output of 121,200 tons, and the maintenance intensity is significantly increased
compared with the third quarter.
At present, many provinces in China are still curtailing electricity, and under the background of the "dual carbon" strategy, some smelters believe that power cuts will last for a long time
.
At present, copper inventories in domestic exchanges and bonded areas are much lower than the same period of previous years, and if imported copper cannot effectively make up for the gap in domestic refined copper production, there will be a tight supply problem
in China in the fourth quarter.
In terms of inventory, domestic inventories continued to be low, and the import window was opened many times in the third quarter, but domestic imports were not positive, and domestic refined copper imports in July and August were less than 260,000 tons, a certain gap
compared with the same period of previous years.
According to the announcement issued by the State Food and Material Reserve Administration, the dumping began in July and continued until the end of the year, but because the dumping volume of each month is not large, the effect of dumping is more reflected in promoting downstream demand than improving the tightness of domestic supply.
