Copper prices temporarily stabilized or ushered in a short- to medium-term rebound

The external copper price is affected by the US dollar pricing factors, and follows the US index changes in the opposite direction
.
The domestic April PMI data is also not optimistic, and the market's pessimism about the economic outlook has weighed on copper prices
.

In the macro aspect, risk aversion caused by stagflation concerns and capital outflow has risen intermittently, stock markets and non-ferrous metals have generally remained weak, and short-term copper prices have temporarily stabilized at 72,000, and the timing of the deep correction in the second half of the year may be advanced
.

Fundamentally, copper concentrate processing fees TC rebounded, upstream supply is relatively abundant, domestic smelters are operating normally, and downstream demand side is affected by the epidemic There is a weak reality, but it is expected to recover, with the sharp recovery of London inventory, the fundamentals are difficult to provide effective support
.

In terms of the market, spot copper fell by 1210 yuan this week, the epidemic in Shanghai continued to be closed, key enterprises resumed work one after another, and the market is expected to unblock
in June as the new additions gradually decrease.
It is understood that export orders remain sluggish, and downstream consumption has no obvious signs of recovery, prompting the current cycle to fall, and Friday's good copper premium of 260 yuan / ton
.
In terms of import profits and losses, the Fed's hawkish interest rate hike landed, Japan's maintenance of ultra-loose monetary policy prompted a strong dollar and a weak yen, while the euro area and other places did not recover as well as the United States, supporting the hegemony of the dollar, the dollar tested the 104 mark, the depreciation of the yuan did not improve, copper prices were relatively strong and weak at home, and the import profit window expanded to 900 yuan / ton
.

In terms of the epidemic, the epidemic prevention policy in East China has begun to show results, the number of new people has dropped sharply, the pace of resuming work and production has accelerated, and May may be able to meet the high demand expectations
in the early stage.
Affected by the above factors, it is expected that next week's Shanghai copper price may repair the decline around 72000 to usher in a short-term rebound
.
Range reference: London copper 9300-9800 US dollars, Shanghai copper main force 7.
1-73,500, scrap copper 6.
65-68,000
.