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Shanghai copper as a whole showed an upward trend this week, and the center of gravity of copper prices moved up to around
49,000 yuan / ton.
At the beginning of the week, the main force of Shanghai copper opened high at 48,050 yuan / ton, steadily rising under the continuous force of bulls, breaking the 49,000 yuan / ton mark in the middle of the week, completely making up for the gap
before the Spring Festival.
Then Shanghai copper around the 49300 yuan / ton line for sideways arrangement, the highest intraday test 49570 yuan / ton
.
Affected by the increase in domestic social inventory and risk aversion before the weekend, the long position reduction dragged down the market to give up gains, falling below the 49,000 yuan / ton mark, closing at 48,900 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 2.
17%.
In terms of external trading, London copper continued to show a stepwise rise, the center of gravity rose significantly from the previous week, standing at the $6,000 integer mark in one fell swoop, and the continued easing of macro and the disturbance of the fundamental supply side provided support
for the upward trend of copper prices.
On Monday, London copper opened at $5931 / ton, briefly tested the weekly low of 5924.
5 US dollars / ton, oscillated upward along the 5-day moving average, easily broke through and jumped to the $6000 mark
.
Stimulated by the favorable "small non-farm" data in the United States in June, copper prices opened high on Thursday at $6,100 / ton, and the highest intraday climbed to $6,120 / ton
.
Near the end of the week, bulls took profits, and the center of gravity fell back to $6050/mt
.
As of now, London copper closed at $6056.
5/ton, a weekly increase of 1.
91%.
In terms of the market, the quotation of the spot market this week showed a landslide-like dip, from the beginning of the week to 160~190 yuan / ton per day waist slash down, to the weekend flat water level, one of which once appeared at a discount of 10 yuan / ton price
.
Copper prices rose sharply after the holiday, and downstream performance was afraid to wait and see
in the context of limited funds at the end of the month.
A large amount of imported copper flowed into the spot market during the week, the market is temporarily difficult to quickly digest this part of imported copper, the accumulation of domestic inventory is obvious, copper prices continue to rebound has been close to around 49,500 yuan / ton, the willingness of holders to exchange cash at high prices has been clearly enhanced, and the market is lacking
in buying interest.
Under the condition of abundant supply, the seller can only accelerate the downward quotation, and the spot premium has a rapid decline in the wait-and-see stop, falling to 10 yuan / ton ~ 40 yuan / ton
on Thursday.
Over the weekend, the market gave up its gains, once fell below 49,000 yuan / ton, attracting low buying, the market discount source was quickly absorbed, for the holder to increase the confidence of holding prices, the price reduction space is limited, the premium performance remained stable and tends to rise above
30 yuan / ton.
Stimulated by low interest rates and massive quantitative easing around the world, economies are restarting and showing signs
of positive recovery.
In the United States, non-farm payrolls rose by a record high of 4.
8 million more than expected in June, the unemployment rate fell back to 11.
1% month-on-month, and PMI data from Europe and the United States rebounded month-on-month, reinforcing
optimistic expectations for the economic outlook.
In addition, the British Prime Minister said that he would support large-scale infrastructure investment, and Germany and France supported the EU's 750 billion euro economic recovery plan, all of which gave investors confidence
.
From a fundamental point of view, Codelco's smelters suspended operations this week due to the epidemic, and the Chilean Copper Miners' Association also called for the suspension of all copper mine operations for 14 days, which continued to cause copper supply concerns and was positive for copper prices
.
At present, Shanghai copper closed negative, but the bottom of the 5-day moving average was still supported below, and 4 white lines were recorded in a row during the week, and the copper price upward channel has not been destroyed
.
Continue to pay attention to the economic recovery and supply-side disturbances at home and abroad, and see whether the bulls can continue to make efforts to provide upward momentum
for copper prices.