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Before the Spring Festival holiday, affected by factors such as the continuous high supply of domestic refined copper, the gradual holiday of downstream enterprises, and the slowdown in demand, the copper spot market was lightly traded, inventories accumulated, and spot discounts continued to expand
.
The center of gravity of domestic copper prices shifted, and the main force of Shanghai copper fell to 50,920 yuan / ton before the holiday, hitting a new low since October last year, and then rebounded
.
From the perspective of the recent market, the fundamentals of copper have given way to the macroeconomy, and the rise and fall of copper prices is still dominated by changes in the macro environment
.
During the Spring Festival, London copper showed a surge and a fall, and the details of the Trump administration's infrastructure plan in the United States were released, and London copper rose sharply for two consecutive days; Copper prices then corrected, on the one hand, affected by the dollar's bottoming rebound, on the other hand, the US January data also underperformed
.
Following January non-farm payrolls data showing signs of upside inflation, the US CPI data for January exceeded expectations, leading investors to worry that inflation was rising too fast and the Federal Reserve to accelerate the pace
of interest rate hikes.
Judging from the current federal funds rate futures, the Fed's rate hike in March has almost become the market consensus
.
In January this year, the growth rate of US industrial output was almost zero, and the growth rate in December last year was also revised down markedly, indicating that the US economic recovery is only moderate growth
.
Recently, the US Treasury will auction $258 billion of Treasury bonds, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to break through 3%.
Once U.
S.
Treasury yields continue to rise sharply, it will lead to a revaluation of the prices of a series of risky assets, forming a new round of shocks
to the stock and commodity markets.
At present, the global stock market has stabilized, the market is no longer worried about the stock market crisis in the short term, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has been repaired
.
The future trend of copper prices depends on when China's consumption begins to recover after the Spring Festival, and the start of destocking will determine the price direction
sooner or later.
From the experience of 16-17 years, domestic inventories will continue to rise for nearly 1 and a half months
after the holiday.
