Copper prices oversold and rebounded The medium-term downward trend remained unchanged

The dollar index briefly retreated after the Fed's rate hike, but the Fed dovish spoke immediately to boost the dollar index, indicating that the Fed dovish does not want to see the dollar weaken.

If the United States carries out large-scale infrastructure construction, then it needs a large amount of copper, building materials and other raw materials
.
If the dollar index strengthens, the prices of these raw materials will go lower, which is what the US authorities want
.
Therefore, we believe that the medium-term trend of the US dollar has not changed, which has a certain restraining effect
on the rise of copper prices.

March is the peak season for domestic copper consumption, but there are indications that copper demand has not increased
significantly.
Recently, the domestic copper market is very abundant, and downstream consumers are more active in purchasing when copper prices fall, but the price rebounds slightly and turns to the sidelines, which indicates that the bearish atmosphere in the market has increased
.
From the import data, China's imports of refined copper 233856 tons in February, down 28.
83% year-on-year, the decline further expanded, indicating that the source of domestic imported copper has shrunk
compared with the previous period.
Due to the concentrated start of downstream enterprises in March, import data may improve
.

The slump in the real estate sector weighed on copper demand
.
The real estate industry has entered a low-speed growth stage, and the demand for copper will continue to be sluggish, which is one of
the reasons why the copper demand season is not strong.

As of 28 March, LME stocks stood at 309225 tonnes, well above the beginning of the month
.
Increased inventory means that downstream demand is insufficient, and a large amount of copper is squeezed into delivery warehouses and does not enter the consumer market
.
At the same time, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory dutiable commodities totaled 161108 tons
.
COMEX copper inventories were 140936 t, up
slightly sequentially.
On the whole, copper inventories are still at a high level, indicating that terminal demand is obviously insufficient, which is not conducive to the upward trend
of copper prices.

It is worth noting that the processing fee is reduced or the risk point
.
Generally speaking, copper mines are in short supply, and copper refining fees are declining; Copper ore is oversupplied, and copper refining fees are rising
.
It is reported that the China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (whose members include large copper smelters such as Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper Company and Tongling Nonferrous Metals) has set the second quarter copper processing and refining fee (TR/RCS) at $80 per ton and 8 cents per pound, down from $90 per ton and 9 cents per pound in the first quarter
.
The decline in copper processing fees was mainly due to the reduction in global raw material supplies due to the previous disruption of production at the
world's two largest copper mines.
Once there are signs of a significant increase in domestic copper demand, this may stimulate copper prices
.