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Last week, copper prices narrowed volatility, stabilized and rose after stepping back to the 51,000 support level, and as of 3 p.
m.
, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 51990, a weekly increase of 0.
37% or 190 points
。 London copper is on the rise, about to test the previous high of $6700 mark, copper prices are stronger outside the domestic weakness is more obvious, mainly because the domestic traditional off-season in the last period continued to accumulate, and the end of the month premium gradually downward, indicating that consumption has not improved; LME inventories continued to decline, falling below 100,000 tonnes this week, a more than 14-year low, and the external market rose steadily; In addition, also affected by the continued weakening of the US dollar, the offshore RMB continued to appreciate to the high level of the year, so the range of Shanghai copper growth was relatively limited
.
From a fundamental point of view, copper concentrate imports in July were 1.
7949 million tons, an increase of 12.
6% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 12.
98%, confirming the previous supply-side interference factors, the current TC maintained a low level, but with the resumption of work and production in Chile and Peru copper mines, the hype enthusiasm faded, the current domestic off-season consumption is obvious, and the market is expected to be strong for gold, silver and ten, and the basic copper price still plays a supporting role
.
From a macro perspective, although the call between China and the United States continued to promote the implementation of the phase one agreement, the contradiction did not further intensify, but the uncertainty in the future market is still a potential negative impact; In addition, on Thursday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell announced a new policy framework to adjust the upper limit of inflation allowable, and the market interpreted that low interest rates would continue, opening up the downside of the dollar index, which was good for non-ferrous metals
.
The technical London copper weekly level remained strong, while the Shanghai copper biased towards high volatility moderate and strong; August is about to pass, if there is a peak season demand rebound in the early cashing in the market, the short-term trend of breaking the level and pulling up is not ruled out
.
In the market, spot copper fell by 240 yuan last week, and the premium of good copper was steadily lowered, stabilizing around
60 yuan on Friday.
At the end of the month, the market successively transferred to the next monthly pass transaction, due to the price difference and the impact of limited stock in the downstream off-season, the market supply is abundant, the supply exceeds the demand, it is difficult for the holders to have a strong price, the transaction is mainly between traders, and the transaction is light
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar index is weak and difficult to change, the offshore yuan appreciated to the high level of the year, the copper price became stronger and weaker, and the import profit window continued to close during the week, and the gap widened to around
850 yuan / ton.
Shanghai copper opened low and rose during the week, up about 700 yuan during the week
.
Fundamentally, London LME copper stocks continued to flow to their lowest level since December 2005, and domestic demand led to a sharp increase
in imported copper.
On the macro front, the Fed changes inflation expectations, the US dollar monetary easing trend may continue, the space below the US dollar index opens to release copper prices and non-ferrous metal pressure, combined with the upcoming domestic traditional industrial season, the expected warming of copper demand in power grids and infrastructure and other industries may promote copper prices, driving market funds into the market to form more trends and breakthroughs, and it is expected that Shanghai copper volatility is strong
.
