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Last week, domestic spot showed a volatile trend, up and down unstable, the average price of domestic spot 1# copper was 72224 yuan / ton, down 168 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 71580 yuan / ton, compared with last week, the average price increased by 644 yuan / ton, up 0.
9%
from the previous week.
After entering November, overseas markets are once again facing severe challenges, one is the recurrence of the new crown epidemic, and the other is the shortage of
energy.
The large-scale recurrence of the epidemic and the introduction of new epidemic prevention measures will inevitably have an adverse impact on the economy, which in turn will affect the consumption and demand
of commodities.
Copper prices have been volatile this week, with twists and turns in November.
From a fundamental point of view, the current shortage of input tickets has eased, imported copper continues to flow, and weekly domestic bonded zone inventories decreased by 17,300 tons, of which Shanghai bonded zone inventories fell by 15,200 tons month-on-month, and Guangdong bonded zone inventories decreased by 02,100 tons
.
In comparison, the weekly increase of the social treasury was 10,900 tons, of which Shanghai increased by 10,200 tons month-on-month and Guangdong decreased by 00,300 tons
.
The tight supply situation eased, and the weekly flat water copper premium plummeted, falling from 1,000 yuan / ton on Monday to 170 yuan / ton
on Friday.
At the same time as the premium declined, the spread also showed a downward trend, with a spread of 470 yuan / ton on Monday and 12-01, and a close of 70 yuan / ton on Thursday night, and around 300 yuan / ton on Friday
.
From the perspective of consumption, the State Grid infrastructure high-voltage line project has recently placed dense orders, and the delivery time is tight, it is reported that part of the delivery has been concentrated in mid-November, and most of the remaining delivery time is concentrated in mid-to-late December
.
By the end of October, the investment in power grid engineering completed 72%, in order to sprint the annual target, in the context of the recent decline in spot premium, large cable companies are expected to enter a relatively intensive procurement period, and drive out the orders of centralized delivery of the State Grid before the end of the year, boosting copper consumption
to a certain extent.
In terms of inventories, the LME weekly destocking was 6,075 tons to 83,800 tons, and it accumulated slightly for two consecutive days on Wednesday and Thursday, focusing on Friday's
inventory changes.
SHFE weekly destocking was 4,222 tonnes to 11,937 tonnes
.
In terms of imports, LME0-3 is currently around $60/ton, and the import ratio is weak.
Overall, the impact of the decline in black on copper prices currently appears to be a short-term sentiment shock, and the impact of the epidemic is currently the main factor
.
The decline in the premium and the convergence of the spread have eased the spot tension from the appearance, but the current inventory is still at a low level, and at the same time, there is a certain demand support
for enterprises to rush to replenish goods at the end of the year.
Considering that the epidemic not only changes demand expectations, but also has an impact on the current supply chain, it is necessary to continuously observe inventory changes and the impact of the epidemic, if the low inventory status is maintained and the epidemic is not further fermented, it is judged that the price will remain volatile
.
If the impact of the epidemic appears, there may be a risk
of short-term price breaking.
