Copper opens high and goes low in the short term, still resisting decline

In terms of the external market, London copper traveled back and forth along the daily moving average, the upward thrust was weak, the downward center of gravity was slightly sinking, and the trend was tangled
.
The growth rate of the dollar index slowed, maintaining a high around 96.
3, putting pressure on copper prices
.
LME copper stocks are at a low level, and the strike is still fermenting, leaving some support
.
Pay attention to the preliminary value of Eurozone GDP in the second quarter year-on-month, which is expected to be general, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend and test the support of the $6100 mark
.

In terms of the market, on the 14th, the premium range of the spot market has declined, mainly due to the approach to the last delivery date, and the price of the follow-up contract is slightly stronger, and the arbitrage market is worried about the spot discount after the month change, therefore, the requirements for the spot premium discount are more demanding, the transaction is difficult to achieve, and the downstream enterprise procurement has increased slightly, but the strength is weak
.

In terms of inventory, on the 14th, the Yangshan copper premium has increased, and from the perspective of foreign inventory distribution pattern, it still supports Yangshan copper premium
.
LME inventories increased slightly on the 14th, mainly due to an increase in Asia, and the recent increase was mainly due to
delivery factors.

On the news, the labor union at Chile's Escondida copper mine agreed Monday night to extend negotiations with management BHP to temporarily refrain from a potential
strike.
Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, has been mediated by the Chilean government to mediate negotiations between the miner's union and management
.
The union said key issues had been resolved in negotiations with BHP on a new labor contract, but added in a statement that important issues remained to be resolved
.

On the whole, the short-term supply elasticity is not high, the status quo of destocking has not been reversed, and short-term copper prices still tend to maintain a rebound structure
.
However, demand data shows that copper pipes have entered the off-season, coupled with the concentration of new smelting capacity in China in the future, and Indian smelters seeking to resume production, so limiting the strength
of copper prices to rebound.
However, considering that mine supply may not keep pace with smelting capacity, which in turn limits smelting pressure, copper price trends may be more complex
from now to the first quarter of 2019.
In addition, short-term market expectations for macro are often repeated, copper price trend is more entangled, in addition, due to the Escondida negotiations reached a key consensus, strike expectations are reduced, overnight copper prices were once weak, but because the core supply pressure is still not reached, short-term copper prices are still resistant
.