Copper market spot supply and demand are weak, and the off-season effect at the end of the year is gradually reflected

On Thursday night, the main force of Shanghai copper 2201 opened at 69500, the night volatility was lower, the white market was lower in the afternoon, and finally closed at 68650, down 1000 yuan / ton
from the previous trading day.

On the macro front, the US economic data is good, the ISM manufacturing PMI index in November was 61.
1, up 0.
3 percentage points from the previous month, of which the manufacturing and employment sub-indicators rose to seven-month highs respectively, and ADP employment increased by 534,000 in November, higher than expected
.
Fears of the Omicron virus eased, and the Dow, which represents the traditional economy, posted a large gain on Thursday despite
Biden's words to tighten travel restrictions.
In addition, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 1.
44%, and interest rate markets remained flat
despite Powell's signal to end bond purchases early.

In terms of stocks, LME copper stocks fell slightly, with registered warehouse receipts increasing to 69,000 tonnes and a premium of US$
94.
The pressure of the squeeze has eased in stages, but the extremely low inventory still has a strong marginal support effect on the price
.

In terms of news, according to steel union data, as of Thursday, the domestic mainstream consumption of copper stocks was 83,000 tons, unchanged from last Thursday, and bonded stocks were 160,000 tons, down 09,000 tons
from last Thursday.
Due to the profitability of imports, traders actively cleared customs, and the overall speed of warehouse reduction slowed down
.

In terms of the market, the premium of Shanghai copper was raised to 300 yuan on Thursday, and the good copper was chaotic due to the tight supply of domestic supply, and the quotation was chaotic, and some reported more than
600 yuan.
There is no market for the price of high rise under water, and the actual transaction gradually fell to 500 yuan
.
However, the support of low inventories on high premiums and absolute prices is also highlighted
.
Affected by the sharp rise in water and pessimistic expectations, downstream procurement is weak
.
However, with the absolute price falling, the price difference between fine copper rod narrowed to 1200 yuan, and the price advantage of fine copper rod over low oxygen rod expanded, which promoted the sales of fine copper rod to be active
.
Overall, consumption in December was stable and gradually turned to the off-season, and the downstream was mainly based on payment collection and inventory reduction, and demand support weakened
.

Summary: Strong economic data in Europe and the United States, rebound in domestic data, and pessimism repair hedged the pressure of the
new virus.
Spot supply and demand are weak, with the year-end off-season effect gradually reflected, demand weakened, prices have seasonal room to fall, but the price structure under extremely low inventory has become significantly stronger, the decline process is slow and oscillating, pay attention to the 66000 long-term platform as the support of seasonal low
.