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Shanghai copper showed signs
of rushing higher on Tuesday morning.
The morning market quickly raised the copper price to 49120 yuan / ton, and then the shock ran at 48980 yuan / ton
.
At noon, Shanghai copper climbed again, reaching an intraday high of 49,150 yuan / ton, and then oscillated down to 48,700 yuan / ton
.
The analysis believes that the poor domestic economic data has led to insufficient confidence in the copper market, limited bulls' ability to rise, bears waiting for the opportunity to enter the market to suppress, copper prices are accumulating strength, but the upward pressure is too great
.
In terms of news, the recent second quarter economic data came out, which showed that China's economic growth slowed
down in the second quarter.
China's GDP grew by 6.
7% in the second quarter, down 0.
1 percentage points
from the GDP growth rate in the first quarter.
In June 2018, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 6.
0% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down month-on-month, and weak demand had a certain suppressive effect
on copper prices.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, copper concentrate remains abundant
at present.
In Chile, due to few strikes in the first half of the year, copper concentrate and copper concentrate production remained at a high level, with a significant
increase over last year.
In terms of data, global copper mine production in March 2018 was 1.
71 million metal tons, an increase of 8.
64% year-on-year and 10.
03% month-on-month; From January to March 2018, the cumulative output of global copper mines was 4.
954 million metal tons, an increase of 6.
56%
over the same period last year.
From January to May 2018, domestic refined copper output was 3.
632 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.
1%.
As of July 13, LME copper stocks were 258,700 tons, down 16,900 tons from the previous week, COMEX copper stocks were 219,800 tons, down 02,900 tons from the previous week, copper stocks in the previous period were 234,700 tons, down 24,000 tons from the previous week, and Shanghai Free Trade Zone stocks decreased by 8,000 tons to 505,000 tons
.
From the perspective of the speed of inventory removal, last week's weekly inventory decreased by 41,000 tons, indicating that it is currently in a stage
where consumption is not weak.
The analysis believes that the further digestion of later inventories will boost copper prices
.
According to the progress of negotiations at the Escondida copper mine, the two sides are currently quite different, and it is expected that they will be in the negotiation period in a short time, coupled with other labor negotiations in the second half of the year, the risk of strike in the second half of the year is higher
than in the first half.
Overall, the market sentiment brought about by macro risk events has been released to a certain extent, combined with the current narrowing refined waste price spread and the ideal speed of inventory decomposition, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound
under the assumption of stable international economic situation.
