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Yesterday, Shanghai aluminum continued its rally, with the highest intraday 14,600 yuan, the lowest 14,430 yuan, to close at 14,595 yuan, up 175 yuan, or 1.
21%.
Yesterday's night session opened higher and then traded sideways around 14600, and Shanghai aluminum has broken through the previous high
.
The Shanghai ratio widened to 7.
659
.
During the National Day Mid-Autumn Festival, macro disturbances during the National Day were frequent, US President Trump was infected with new crown pneumonia, the epidemic in Europe continued to rage, the US dollar index fell, supporting commodity prices higher, and the US fiscal stimulus package passed obstruction, but there was still no substantial progress
.
On the supply side, aluminum enterprises have steadily released production capacity, Yunnan Hongtai has been powered on since early September, and recently Weiqiao Yunnan project has also begun to put into production, production capacity has accelerated, electrolytic aluminum operating rate continues to rise, and there is a loose trend
on the supply side.
On the cost side, the cost of alumina rose to 12,920 yuan yesterday, and the profit margin narrowed
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was significantly lowered to 150 yuan / ton, and the discount range of Lun aluminum was significantly reduced to 13.
75 US dollars
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks increased by 6,150 tons to 1,422,500 tons, stocks in the previous period increased by 4,784 tons to 227,900 tons, and the social bank increased by 09,000 tons to 715,000 tons according to the data on October 12, with a more obvious accumulation trend
.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices bottomed out, the profit margin of the current electrolytic aluminum industry narrowed, spot, due to the high premium, middlemen are less willing to stockpile, and the transaction between the two sides is general
.
The downstream fear of heights is heavy, the middlemen are more and less, and the overall market transaction is poor
.
The demand side has now entered the peak consumption season in September, but demand has not met expectations, and the overall performance is relatively weak
.
The overseas epidemic has been repeated, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
From the perspective of the future market, the supply side has accelerated with the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, and the production capacity of the supply side has been further released, while the downstream start has remained stable, and the demand side has not been guided by the consumption season, and the consumption performance has not met expectations
.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will be adjusted
in shocks.
In the context of the current uncertain macro situation, it is operationally recommended to wait and see
.
