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Aluminum prices rose
slightly yesterday overnight.
In terms of fundamentals, the recent domestic social inventory continued to hover around 600,000 tons, showing a bottoming out
.
In the short term, the overall inventory level of the market is still low, but from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year, consumption is likely to cool down, and inventories are expected to gradually increase, in addition, the medium-term supply increase trend is also worth paying attention to
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will face adjustment in the short term, and the operation will be
dominated by high test shorts.
On the macro front, the mutation of the new crown virus in the UK, and the ban on British aircraft in various countries and regions for local safety, have once again cast a shadow over the global economic recovery and suppressed market sentiment
.
However, on December 28, Beijing time, US President Trump passed a new crown relief bill with a total size of $900 billion and a government funding bill, and market liquidity increased
again.
If the overseas epidemic further develops, major overseas economies will also launch new stimulus packages, and market liquidity will continue to be sufficient, which is positive for aluminum prices
.
In terms of output, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in November, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.
182 million tons, down 0.
56% month-on-month, up 8.
70% year-on-year, and 11.
9 percentage points
higher than last year.
From January to November, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 33.
817 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year, and a year-on-year growth rate of 4.
6 percentage points
.
Although the production of electrolytic aluminum has reached a record high, from the perspective of inventory, electrolytic aluminum has been fully digested
.
According to statistics, as of December 28, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 601,000 tons, which is still at a low level in the year, indicating that demand is better and supply is digested
by ingredients.
In summary, although the British new crown virus mutation hit the market atmosphere, but the current demand for electrolytic aluminum is still performing well, global liquidity continues to remain sufficient, good for aluminum prices, it is expected that the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 2102 will maintain a high oscillation in the range of 15300-15800 yuan / ton, it is recommended to pay attention to the impact of
inventory changes on prices.
